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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #18 (Top 20%) · All time · 7 days horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
36
2 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
18 correct / 18 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+1.3%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.7%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
0
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+22.3%“Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.”
Worst call
-11.2%“The business cycle returning will melt faces off Bitcoin bears https://t.co/hOsAlxp9MD”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
18 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026, 16:51 | “(2/2) AND it gets harder every year you wait. Each colored spiral is a start date - today, then 2, 4 and 6 years out. Every one sinks deeper, and another budget falls past its point of no return. The lowest monthly buy that ever reaches 1 BTC: Today: $3,089 In 2 yrs: $5,071 In 4 yrs: $7,934 In 6 yrs: $11,935 Power law price, not spot (spot sits well under it today). NFA. Stack early, stack hard, friends.” |
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All time · 7d
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $81,334 |
| 7d |
| $81,611 |
| +0.3% |
| correct |
| 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 | “@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,102 | 7d | $84,853 | +0.9% | correct |
| 18 Sept 2026, 15:49 | “Bitcoin looking like it's ready to get up off the [Decay Channel] floor. https://t.co/i3qKJJ7LRH” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,701 | 7d | $83,784 | +3.8% | correct |
| 15 Sept 2026, 16:13 | “Remember the massive Bitcoin jump in August? Came at you fast, didn't it? That's how the next leg up will be, too. Don't take your eye off the ball 👁” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,329 | 7d | $86,426 | +13.2% | correct |
| 2 Sept 2026, 20:10 | “INCREDIBLE. This first instance of the power law model of Bitcoin's price in time was shared in February of 2013. It predicted $93,725 for today, September 2, 2026. Right now the price is $77,450 - only 17% under Dacoinminister's prediction. As we move into the next bull run it will prove even more accurate. https://t.co/vgwdA9jklf” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,378 | 7d | $78,304 | +1.2% | correct |
| 28 Aug 2026, 16:42 | “BITCOIN:🪙GOLDEN❎CROSS🪙Incoming. 1. The exact roll-forward puts the golden cross on September 9, 12 days from now 2. In the near term (1-3 months), neither golden 🪙nor death ☠️crosses matter much for forward returns 3. At 6 months, the golden cross has real edge over the death and more strongly suggests upward trajectory 3b. Gold median of +40% forward ROI vs. Death median of -3% forward ROI 4. Median implied price AT the estimated golden cross date (Sept 9) is $80,282 5. 6-month (Mar 9) implied Bitcoin price target (IQR) IF we hit that upcoming golden cross: $94k - $149k 5b. Median implied price = $112,748 And: this isn't even when the bull run will be finished - not by a long shot, I believe. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,785 | 7d | $79,751 | +2.5% | correct |
| 27 Aug 2026, 18:01 | “@BitcoinMagazine @Polymarket The momentum is shifting, especially now that miners are finding their footing once again https://t.co/9VyL9CosVr” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,176 | 7d | $81,268 | +1.4% | correct |
| 22 Aug 2026, 21:02 | “@BitcoinArchive Very likely the summer reversal we discussed just months back is playing out! 🍻” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,847 | 7d | $78,164 | +1.7% | correct |
| 20 Aug 2026, 17:48 | “Looks like BTC may be turning up for the recent ISM PMI uptick after all. 🙈🙉🙊 Whaddya know. https://t.co/SiHO0aX3qu” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $72,715 | 7d | $80,445 | +10.6% | correct |
| 18 Aug 2026, 22:24 | “Here's the buffer that absorbed four years of quantitative tightening. The reverse repo facility peaked at $2.554 TRILLION on the last day of 2022. Today it holds $255 million. One hundredth of one percent of the peak! 🤯 Money parked overnight at the Fed could drain away without ever touching bank reserves, and all $2.5 trillion of it did exactly that. 📉 Now look at the past year: Fed assets: +$116B Treasury cash account: +$460B Reverse repo: -$56B The Fed added liquidity, and the Treasury took back almost four times as much. There's nothing left to cushion the next one. 💡Now think of the last disappointing 'dampened' Bitcoin 'bull run': The 2023–2025 (pseudo) bull run was a cycle run on flat liquidity. Not contracting; the buffer prevented that. But not expanding either. Compare that to 2020–2021, where net liquidity went vertical and so did Bitcoin. It's making more sense now. A pseudo-bull run unsupported by macro, by Fed policy, by sentiment - only running of the ETF launches and possible halving narrative. But Bitcoin will have another proper bull run, yet.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,596 | 7d | $78,877 | +22.1% | correct |
| 16 Aug 2026, 15:48 | “Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,072 | 7d | $77,133 | +22.3% | correct |
| 12 Aug 2026, 19:25 | “Bitcoin MVRV Z-score = 0.4 Lotta upside here, folks. ⤴️ https://t.co/xYI1v2hzom” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,344 | 7d | $68,420 | +8.0% | correct |
| 11 Aug 2026, 17:54 | “It's here - the updated power law governing the devaluation of US Median Home Square Feet in Bitcoin. Oil, stock market and gold up next. https://t.co/sg3KTAZQWQ https://t.co/MrSwMKTgdu” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,537 | 7d | $64,630 | +1.7% | correct |
| 10 Aug 2026, 16:50 | “@BitcoinArchive This is what's up. $70k round the corner” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,839 | 7d | $64,060 | +0.3% | correct |
| 2 Aug 2026, 15:57 | “The power law of Bitcoin IN GOLD has taken quite a hit when you keep it honest by stopping training data in Aug 2020. Here's why I don't believe the same will happen in dollars, and rather price will continue to grow at roughly t^6. Bitcoin and the dollar both have monetary policies. One is a halving schedule, the other is a committee targeting a couple percent a year and mostly hitting it. Gold has neither. The t⁶ is a network property, addresses are doing roughly t³ x Metcalfe. The dollar is like a valve someone's hand is always on. Gold is more like the weather.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,041 | 7d | $65,175 | +3.4% | correct |
