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Published 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
In reply to · 26 Sept 2026, 16:46 UTC · context given to the AI
@sminston_with Well than you are assuming BTC will be worth $200K in 1 year. Sure it could be but there is no guarantee and if it is not and not going up every year, the model fails.@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 84410.45 / 84102.19 − 1 = +0.4%d × r = +0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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