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Published 28 Aug 2026, 16:42 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
BITCOIN:🪙GOLDEN❎CROSS🪙Incoming. 1. The exact roll-forward puts the golden cross on September 9, 12 days from now 2. In the near term (1-3 months), neither golden 🪙nor death ☠️crosses matter much for forward returns 3. At 6 months, the golden cross has real edge over the death and more strongly suggests upward trajectory 3b. Gold median of +40% forward ROI vs. Death median of -3% forward ROI 4. Median implied price AT the estimated golden cross date (Sept 9) is $80,282 5. 6-month (Mar 9) implied Bitcoin price target (IQR) IF we hit that upcoming golden cross: $94k - $149k 5b. Median implied price = $112,748 And: this isn't even when the bull run will be finished - not by a long shot, I believe. NFAView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 79750.77 / 77785.06 − 1 = +2.5%d × r = +2.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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