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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #31 (Top 35%) · All time · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
38
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
63.2%
24 correct / 14 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.0%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+1.4%“Speaking of crazy Bitcoin signals... Copper/gold ratio has definitely made a positive turn - having just crossed its 1000-day SMA - and it would suggest a bull may be coming sooner than everyone expects a la 4-year magic. Be prepared. https://t.co/f3FPkX9VGD”
Worst call
-1.5%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
14 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026, 02:23 | “I would not bet against Bitcoin's power law forecast” |
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All time · 4h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $76,115 |
| 4h |
| $75,520 |
| -0.8% |
| incorrect |
| 8 Oct 2026, 14:30 | “Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,647 | 4h | $81,428 | -1.5% | incorrect |
| 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 | “@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,135 | 4h | $84,000 | -0.2% | incorrect |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:54 | “You're in the perfect zone- bullish structure, yet still highly undervalued $BTC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $86,062 | 4h | $86,053 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 15 Sept 2026, 16:13 | “Remember the massive Bitcoin jump in August? Came at you fast, didn't it? That's how the next leg up will be, too. Don't take your eye off the ball 👁” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,228 | 4h | $75,984 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 2 Sept 2026, 20:10 | “INCREDIBLE. This first instance of the power law model of Bitcoin's price in time was shared in February of 2013. It predicted $93,725 for today, September 2, 2026. Right now the price is $77,450 - only 17% under Dacoinminister's prediction. As we move into the next bull run it will prove even more accurate. https://t.co/vgwdA9jklf” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,335 | 4h | $77,135 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 1 Sept 2026, 04:23 | “@AshCrypto Extremely bullish for Bitcoin https://t.co/AZnRRxZqis” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $78,779 | 4h | $78,085 | -0.9% | incorrect |
| 28 Aug 2026, 16:42 | “BITCOIN:🪙GOLDEN❎CROSS🪙Incoming. 1. The exact roll-forward puts the golden cross on September 9, 12 days from now 2. In the near term (1-3 months), neither golden 🪙nor death ☠️crosses matter much for forward returns 3. At 6 months, the golden cross has real edge over the death and more strongly suggests upward trajectory 3b. Gold median of +40% forward ROI vs. Death median of -3% forward ROI 4. Median implied price AT the estimated golden cross date (Sept 9) is $80,282 5. 6-month (Mar 9) implied Bitcoin price target (IQR) IF we hit that upcoming golden cross: $94k - $149k 5b. Median implied price = $112,748 And: this isn't even when the bull run will be finished - not by a long shot, I believe. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,802 | 4h | $77,386 | -0.5% | incorrect |
| 27 Aug 2026, 18:01 | “@BitcoinMagazine @Polymarket The momentum is shifting, especially now that miners are finding their footing once again https://t.co/9VyL9CosVr” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,385 | 4h | $80,281 | -0.1% | incorrect |
| 20 Aug 2026, 17:48 | “Looks like BTC may be turning up for the recent ISM PMI uptick after all. 🙈🙉🙊 Whaddya know. https://t.co/SiHO0aX3qu” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $72,777 | 4h | $72,706 | -0.1% | incorrect |
| 18 Aug 2026, 22:24 | “Here's the buffer that absorbed four years of quantitative tightening. The reverse repo facility peaked at $2.554 TRILLION on the last day of 2022. Today it holds $255 million. One hundredth of one percent of the peak! 🤯 Money parked overnight at the Fed could drain away without ever touching bank reserves, and all $2.5 trillion of it did exactly that. 📉 Now look at the past year: Fed assets: +$116B Treasury cash account: +$460B Reverse repo: -$56B The Fed added liquidity, and the Treasury took back almost four times as much. There's nothing left to cushion the next one. 💡Now think of the last disappointing 'dampened' Bitcoin 'bull run': The 2023–2025 (pseudo) bull run was a cycle run on flat liquidity. Not contracting; the buffer prevented that. But not expanding either. Compare that to 2020–2021, where net liquidity went vertical and so did Bitcoin. It's making more sense now. A pseudo-bull run unsupported by macro, by Fed policy, by sentiment - only running of the ETF launches and possible halving narrative. But Bitcoin will have another proper bull run, yet.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,534 | 4h | $64,340 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 22 Jul 2026, 16:54 | “At $66,187, Bitcoin is now back above the 1st quantile, looking higher. As a reminder, historically, dips below the 1st quantile only last a day or two at most. But in more extreme cases, there have been stretches up to almost 20 days. We recently went as long as 13 days and cumulatively between June and July ~27 days. 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-05 to 2026-06-06 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-09 to 2026-06-10 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-23 to 2026-07-05 (13 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-13 (7 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-17 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-19 (1 days) We are most likely out of the woods on the downside.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $66,123 | 4h | $65,891 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 22 Jun 2026, 15:57 | “Check this out. There's a strong case that Bitcoin's fair value should be done through a 'Bubble-Free' lens. That is, REMOVE the quasi-cyclical bull run 'bubbles' before analyzing residuals/fair-value. Now we see the "BUBBLE-FREE" price residuals. . . . . Turns out even in Bubble-Free, we have essentially already bounced off what was the worst residual we saw in 2022 (or very close, within error). I think this supports that there is a good chance the actual current cycle bottom is behind us. Notice the Bubble-Free residuals distribution (right-edge of the last frame) - that lower tail of the distribution has been bounced off, and we now still sit at extreme/deep value. What a time to buy.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,765 | 4h | $64,401 | -0.6% | incorrect |
| 26 May 2026, 18:40 | “The business cycle returning will melt faces off Bitcoin bears https://t.co/hOsAlxp9MD” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $75,782 | 4h | $75,689 | -0.1% | incorrect |
