Published 22 Jun 2026, 15:57 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
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Check this out. There's a strong case that Bitcoin's fair value should be done through a 'Bubble-Free' lens. That is, REMOVE the quasi-cyclical bull run 'bubbles' before analyzing residuals/fair-value. Now we see the "BUBBLE-FREE" price residuals. . . . . Turns out even in Bubble-Free, we have essentially already bounced off what was the worst residual we saw in 2022 (or very close, within error). I think this supports that there is a good chance the actual current cycle bottom is behind us. Notice the Bubble-Free residuals distribution (right-edge of the last frame) - that lower tail of the distribution has been bounced off, and we now still sit at extreme/deep value. What a time to buy.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 62404.01 / 64765.38 − 1 = -3.6%d × r = -3.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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