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Published 22 Jul 2026, 16:54 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
At $66,187, Bitcoin is now back above the 1st quantile, looking higher. As a reminder, historically, dips below the 1st quantile only last a day or two at most. But in more extreme cases, there have been stretches up to almost 20 days. We recently went as long as 13 days and cumulatively between June and July ~27 days. 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-05 to 2026-06-06 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-09 to 2026-06-10 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-23 to 2026-07-05 (13 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-13 (7 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-17 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-19 (1 days) We are most likely out of the woods on the downside.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 64691.97 / 66204.83 − 1 = -2.3%d × r = -2.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
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