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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #33 (Top 37%) · All time · 1 hour horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
38
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
47.4%
18 correct / 20 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.0%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.1%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+1.9%“Speaking of crazy Bitcoin signals... Copper/gold ratio has definitely made a positive turn - having just crossed its 1000-day SMA - and it would suggest a bull may be coming sooner than everyone expects a la 4-year magic. Be prepared. https://t.co/f3FPkX9VGD”
Worst call
-1.8%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
20 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026, 02:23 | “I would not bet against Bitcoin's power law forecast” |
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All time · 1h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $76,115 |
| 1h |
| $75,882 |
| -0.3% |
| incorrect |
| 16 Oct 2026, 16:51 | “(2/2) AND it gets harder every year you wait. Each colored spiral is a start date - today, then 2, 4 and 6 years out. Every one sinks deeper, and another budget falls past its point of no return. The lowest monthly buy that ever reaches 1 BTC: Today: $3,089 In 2 yrs: $5,071 In 4 yrs: $7,934 In 6 yrs: $11,935 Power law price, not spot (spot sits well under it today). NFA. Stack early, stack hard, friends.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,355 | 1h | $81,192 | -0.2% | incorrect |
| 8 Oct 2026, 14:30 | “Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,647 | 1h | $81,148 | -1.8% | incorrect |
| 5 Oct 2026, 19:19 | “@dotkrueger Power law is the ultimate math orange pill” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,767 | 1h | $85,755 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 2 Oct 2026, 00:11 | “BTC price level looking great here at $84,830 The longer we hover above the support rainbow, the stronger the bull run case becomes, brick by brick, solidly in accumulation. Currently a 13.6% on the power law quantile framework. https://t.co/B33OsrVohx” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,854 | 1h | $84,632 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 30 Sept 2026, 14:23 | “Bitcoin's price is only about $11,500 under what a living anonymous legend - Dacoinminster, anonymous discoverer of Bitcoin's price power law and living legend - predicted the price would be back in 2013. - - - That's just 15% below his prediction, a gap we are sure to be closing here as we move up in the bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $83,844 | 1h | $83,658 | -0.2% | incorrect |
| 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 | “@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,135 | 1h | $84,098 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 23 Sept 2026, 20:19 | “Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days. 9/10 times this means continued moves upward. BULLISH. Been waiting for that arrow to appear 🔥 https://t.co/hHItsNw3VN” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,358 | 1h | $84,316 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:54 | “You're in the perfect zone- bullish structure, yet still highly undervalued $BTC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $86,062 | 1h | $85,966 | -0.1% | incorrect |
| 15 Sept 2026, 16:13 | “Remember the massive Bitcoin jump in August? Came at you fast, didn't it? That's how the next leg up will be, too. Don't take your eye off the ball 👁” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,228 | 1h | $76,212 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 2 Sept 2026, 20:10 | “INCREDIBLE. This first instance of the power law model of Bitcoin's price in time was shared in February of 2013. It predicted $93,725 for today, September 2, 2026. Right now the price is $77,450 - only 17% under Dacoinminister's prediction. As we move into the next bull run it will prove even more accurate. https://t.co/vgwdA9jklf” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,335 | 1h | $77,299 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 28 Aug 2026, 16:42 | “BITCOIN:🪙GOLDEN❎CROSS🪙Incoming. 1. The exact roll-forward puts the golden cross on September 9, 12 days from now 2. In the near term (1-3 months), neither golden 🪙nor death ☠️crosses matter much for forward returns 3. At 6 months, the golden cross has real edge over the death and more strongly suggests upward trajectory 3b. Gold median of +40% forward ROI vs. Death median of -3% forward ROI 4. Median implied price AT the estimated golden cross date (Sept 9) is $80,282 5. 6-month (Mar 9) implied Bitcoin price target (IQR) IF we hit that upcoming golden cross: $94k - $149k 5b. Median implied price = $112,748 And: this isn't even when the bull run will be finished - not by a long shot, I believe. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,802 | 1h | $77,788 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 27 Aug 2026, 18:01 | “@BitcoinMagazine @Polymarket The momentum is shifting, especially now that miners are finding their footing once again https://t.co/9VyL9CosVr” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,385 | 1h | $80,216 | -0.2% | incorrect |
| 22 Aug 2026, 21:02 | “@BitcoinArchive Very likely the summer reversal we discussed just months back is playing out! 🍻” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,083 | 1h | $76,965 | -0.2% | incorrect |
| 20 Aug 2026, 17:48 | “Looks like BTC may be turning up for the recent ISM PMI uptick after all. 🙈🙉🙊 Whaddya know. https://t.co/SiHO0aX3qu” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $72,777 | 1h | $72,517 | -0.4% | incorrect |
