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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Sept 2026, 20:19 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days. 9/10 times this means continued moves upward. BULLISH. Been waiting for that arrow to appear 🔥 https://t.co/hHItsNw3VN

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,235 at 23 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,360 at 24 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 84359.99 / 84235.47 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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