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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #18 (Top 20%) · All time · 7 days horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
36
2 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
18 correct / 18 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+1.3%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.7%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
0
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+22.3%“Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.”
Worst call
-11.2%“The business cycle returning will melt faces off Bitcoin bears https://t.co/hOsAlxp9MD”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
18 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026, 15:38 | “The last time Bitcoin closed at HALF today's price was 11/30/23 - 1,065 days ago 🤯 At each past bear market low, the look-back was: 2011: 216 days 2015: 540 days 2018: 587 days 2022: 925 days - - - June's low ($58,525) sat 985 days from half, further back than at ANY prior bottom. Even at that low, a buyer from 10/19/23 was still up 2x. Not to mention - according this metric, looks pretty clear we're past the bottom, in case you needed another signal for this. We've got much higher to go.” |
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All time · 7d
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $77,443 |
| 7d |
| $75,666 |
| -2.3% |
| incorrect |
| 20 Oct 2026, 20:57 | “Classic Log-Log Decay Channel Model. Bitcoin $1 Million just really isn't that far off. https://t.co/aQwig2FAGv” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,741 | 7d | $80,671 | -2.5% | incorrect |
| 17 Oct 2026, 02:33 | “In 2022, after the Bitcoin bear reversal, we had the first golden cross of the 'bear' market. About 2 months later, price jumped again by ~30%. If this repeats, the price will get above $100k. About a month left to go. https://t.co/ymulAjQ84i” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,348 | 7d | $80,889 | -0.6% | incorrect |
| 13 Oct 2026, 03:02 | “I think Bitcoin is gonna pump any day now.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $83,230 | 7d | $82,032 | -1.4% | incorrect |
| 8 Oct 2026, 14:30 | “Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,639 | 7d | $81,778 | -1.0% | incorrect |
| 5 Oct 2026, 19:19 | “@dotkrueger Power law is the ultimate math orange pill” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,732 | 7d | $82,763 | -3.5% | incorrect |
| 2 Oct 2026, 00:11 | “BTC price level looking great here at $84,830 The longer we hover above the support rainbow, the stronger the bull run case becomes, brick by brick, solidly in accumulation. Currently a 13.6% on the power law quantile framework. https://t.co/B33OsrVohx” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,763 | 7d | $81,728 | -3.6% | incorrect |
| 30 Sept 2026, 14:23 | “Bitcoin's price is only about $11,500 under what a living anonymous legend - Dacoinminster, anonymous discoverer of Bitcoin's price power law and living legend - predicted the price would be back in 2013. - - - That's just 15% below his prediction, a gap we are sure to be closing here as we move up in the bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $83,754 | 7d | $82,971 | -0.9% | incorrect |
| 23 Sept 2026, 20:19 | “Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days. 9/10 times this means continued moves upward. BULLISH. Been waiting for that arrow to appear 🔥 https://t.co/hHItsNw3VN” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,235 | 7d | $83,623 | -0.7% | incorrect |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:54 | “You're in the perfect zone- bullish structure, yet still highly undervalued $BTC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,832 | 7d | $83,000 | -3.3% | incorrect |
| 10 Sept 2026, 16:26 | “Dollar Index (DXY) 252d Z-score has been down-trending since June, and just broke negative 👀 Short/med-term risk-on returning Bullish for Bitcoin/Crypto https://t.co/N9HeueBGQi” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,160 | 7d | $76,688 | -0.6% | incorrect |
| 1 Sept 2026, 04:23 | “@AshCrypto Extremely bullish for Bitcoin https://t.co/AZnRRxZqis” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $78,704 | 7d | $78,650 | -0.1% | incorrect |
| 25 Aug 2026, 21:02 | “Strong reversal in % long-term holder supply in loss From a 45.4% peak to 34.4% today, from this past week's rally. NAIL IN THE COFFIN, BEARS? 🔨🐻🔨🐻🔨 - - - Evidence mounting that we are indeed past the Bitcoin cycle low. https://t.co/QBVHszR2dA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $78,551 | 7d | $77,167 | -1.8% | incorrect |
| 9 Aug 2026, 04:49 | “LTH % Supply-in-Loss The diamond-est hands are diamond-handing. Good chance the Bitcoin bottom is behind us. 👀 https://t.co/EZauAp5N15” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,735 | 7d | $63,017 | -2.7% | incorrect |
| 22 Jul 2026, 16:54 | “At $66,187, Bitcoin is now back above the 1st quantile, looking higher. As a reminder, historically, dips below the 1st quantile only last a day or two at most. But in more extreme cases, there have been stretches up to almost 20 days. We recently went as long as 13 days and cumulatively between June and July ~27 days. 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-05 to 2026-06-06 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-09 to 2026-06-10 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-06-23 to 2026-07-05 (13 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-13 (7 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-17 (2 days) 🔴 Below 1% Quantile: 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-19 (1 days) We are most likely out of the woods on the downside.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $66,205 | 7d | $63,717 | -3.8% | incorrect |
