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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #9 (Top 12%) · 90 days · 7 days horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
28
2 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
14 correct / 14 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+2.3%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.7%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
0
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+22.3%“Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.”
Worst call
-3.6%“BTC price level looking great here at $84,830 The longer we hover above the support rainbow, the stronger the bull run case becomes, brick by brick, solidly in accumulation. Currently a 13.6% on the power law quantile framework. https://t.co/B33OsrVohx”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
112 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026, 18:37 | “Here's about how long you'll be "still early" in Bitcoin. - - - In just the last 4 years: Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by ~22% a year AND gold by ~19% 📈 LOOKING AHEAD: On its power-law trend, that gap doesn't close until ~2070 (stocks) and ~2081 (gold). Volatility's less certain. ~2040 if it decays exponentially, 2100+ on a power law. It hasn't shown a clean trend, but if you measure from the tops or a handful of other methods, the evidence supports exponential decay more, IMO. Either way, the extra return from Bitcoin runs should run for at least the next 45-55 years You're still early, for now 🕓” |
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90 days · 7d
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| — |
| 7d |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 6 Oct 2026, 17:16 | “Weekly BTC RSI kissed 30 and started ripping 🔥 Ripping as in "RIP Bears" 🪦🧸 https://t.co/pMe62edknv” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 6 Oct 2026, 15:35 | “It has only ever DEcelerated (as has price), but price (proportional to adoption) is still projected to outperform everything for decades. This is a feature of the power law growth; sustainable network growth, not explosive exponential growth. At the decades-out mark, theories abound - is this the transition from SoV -> MoE?” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 6 Oct 2026, 15:20 | “@hillery_dan What surprised me was his surprise/concern at the diminishing bubbles, this has been tracked for a long time - but the undercurrent drives on https://t.co/HGkloo1PkB” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 6 Oct 2026, 15:18 | “Gromen: what if I told you, it's not about the peaks (bubbles) at all Because you know what hasn't been diminishing? The floor rate Even without the bubbles at all, $1M is projected to come around in ~Apr 2035 https://t.co/8LM7ZoV16d https://t.co/6YnvDzRmMe” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 5 Oct 2026, 19:19 | “@dotkrueger Power law is the ultimate math orange pill” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,732 | 7d | $82,763 | -3.5% | incorrect |
| 5 Oct 2026, 18:03 | “If the dollar fails, Bitcoin likely succeeds. If Bitcoin fails, everything else already has.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 3 Oct 2026, 20:09 | “If BTC price makes another move soon, dominating $90k+ resistance, I think this is actually going to turn out to be one banger of an indicator: https://t.co/77NwZmhNda” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 2 Oct 2026, 20:28 | “Macro signals do appear to be supporting the Bitcoin turnaround. Gold/Copper Z-score leading BTC residual Z-score https://t.co/amod7iHH0R” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 2 Oct 2026, 18:22 | “Ignore the noise. Bitcoin has been absolutely WRECKING gold and stocks since June. Higher. https://t.co/7PyoeLOsj7” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 2 Oct 2026, 00:11 | “BTC price level looking great here at $84,830 The longer we hover above the support rainbow, the stronger the bull run case becomes, brick by brick, solidly in accumulation. Currently a 13.6% on the power law quantile framework. https://t.co/B33OsrVohx” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,763 | 7d | $81,728 | -3.6% | incorrect |
| 30 Sept 2026, 23:34 | “2030 is a little early by my indicators - a 95%CI of this decay model ensemble gives me an earliest estimate of ~2032 for a $1M BTC. Although, @1MarkMoss is a serious thinker and his opinion is not to be taken lightly. https://t.co/v3dd9XqLgG https://t.co/vMCoqgHbyM” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 30 Sept 2026, 18:01 | “@JohnstonFredJ The power law is the forecast. 🔥” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 7d | — | — | unscored |
| 30 Sept 2026, 14:23 | “Bitcoin's price is only about $11,500 under what a living anonymous legend - Dacoinminster, anonymous discoverer of Bitcoin's price power law and living legend - predicted the price would be back in 2013. - - - That's just 15% below his prediction, a gap we are sure to be closing here as we move up in the bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $83,754 | 7d | $82,971 | -0.9% | incorrect |
| 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 | “@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,102 | 7d | $84,853 | +0.9% | correct |
