Prediction evidence

Quoting · 6 Oct 2026, 14:26 UTC · context given to the AI

Surprised at the reaction to this post. Here is the thought that generated it: 1. I logged onto Coinbase recently to buy more BTC, & was struck that unlike when i first bought BTC on Coinbase in 2013, Coinbase now offers all sorts of BTC derivatives, offering varying degrees of leverage, all cash-settled (not BTC-settled). 2. BTC peak-to-peak CAGR returns have collapsed in the 2 cycles since cash-settled** BTC derivatives began trading (**"cash-settled" is key, because it means the owner of the biggest printing press increasingly sets marginal prices over time, NOT physical supply & demand. In most cases, the owner of the biggest printing press is the very fiat system BTC was designed to escape from) 👇 As a BTC holder since 2013 (and still), this collapse in peak-to-peak CAGR of BTC troubles me greatly. I would be happy to have anyone explain why peak-to-peak returns have collapsed in the past 8 years & why they think this trend will stop despite the seeming continued expansion of cash-settled BTC derivatives and cash-settled betting markets on BTC. Thank you. 🙏❤️