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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #37 (Top 49%) · 90 days · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
27
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
59.3%
16 correct / 11 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.0%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.1%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+0.9%“I think Bitcoin is gonna pump any day now.”
Worst call
-1.5%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
109 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 22:13 | “https://t.co/efxtiP501Y” |
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90 days · 4h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| — |
| 4h |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 19 Aug 2026, 19:08 | “One of they key reasons why I think we are most likely past Bitcoin's bear market bottom: Each cycle, the bottom price-to-production cost multiple goes up. We're past what I think will be the multiple for this cycle, 1.14x. https://t.co/odkzVxlHgw https://t.co/XvfSQX2CeD” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 19 Aug 2026, 17:54 | “Dollar weakening = BTC ripping I'll just leave this here. #DXY #BTC https://t.co/bqfzGm7mBm” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 19 Aug 2026, 13:55 | “Dollar-bearish, Bitcoin-bullish Runs against Ben Cowen's current dollar-strengthening theory. Should be interesting! https://t.co/Ct8I0vmuek” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 18 Aug 2026, 22:24 | “Here's the buffer that absorbed four years of quantitative tightening. The reverse repo facility peaked at $2.554 TRILLION on the last day of 2022. Today it holds $255 million. One hundredth of one percent of the peak! 🤯 Money parked overnight at the Fed could drain away without ever touching bank reserves, and all $2.5 trillion of it did exactly that. 📉 Now look at the past year: Fed assets: +$116B Treasury cash account: +$460B Reverse repo: -$56B The Fed added liquidity, and the Treasury took back almost four times as much. There's nothing left to cushion the next one. 💡Now think of the last disappointing 'dampened' Bitcoin 'bull run': The 2023–2025 (pseudo) bull run was a cycle run on flat liquidity. Not contracting; the buffer prevented that. But not expanding either. Compare that to 2020–2021, where net liquidity went vertical and so did Bitcoin. It's making more sense now. A pseudo-bull run unsupported by macro, by Fed policy, by sentiment - only running of the ETF launches and possible halving narrative. But Bitcoin will have another proper bull run, yet.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,534 | 4h | $64,340 | -0.3% | incorrect |
| 18 Aug 2026, 16:23 | “Tapped $65,000. This cycle, Bitcoin is saying "no" to the depths below. https://t.co/W94pM6JfU2” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 18 Aug 2026, 00:45 | “A lot of you'd prefer this one. Don't bet on it, though. https://t.co/Dj496NsMY2 https://t.co/5Iz2o8Dh3o” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 19:23 | “Choose Your Returns. - - - 🟠Bitcoin has massive average annual returns, but they are diminishing.. 🔵The S&P500 has a constant rate of return, ~10.9% According to the math, if Bitcoin continues it's power law path, and S&P continues on course, they will reach parity in 2063. - - - You have about 37 years to achieve multiples of gains over the stock market. In this way, you are still early. Stay humble.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 16:48 | “On February 5th Bitcoin hit its deepest 252 day z-score since January 2015, measured in dollars, in gold and against the S&P 500 all at ONCE. - - - Dollars -3.51 Gold -3.66 S&P 500 -3.97 Only one day in sixteen years was more stretched than that: January 14th, 2015. Which happened to be the exact day that cycle bottomed. 🧐 But the z-score is not the price low. It never has been. 2015: low came 0 days later 2018: 1 day later 2022: 146 days later 2026: 145 days later (so far) Our low so far is June 30th at $58,525, and we're 7.5% above it. The lag matches 2022 almost to the day. That gets me to about 70% the bottom is in. Not higher, because MVRV is 1.19 and every previous bottom printed under 1.00. Still some mixed signals out there, but evidence is mounting on bottom being in.📉” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 16:08 | “BTC 64K. Scanning bullish signals https://t.co/I171ibCTEQ” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 15:30 | “@randgroup I know I'm a Bitcoiner but I really like these Fidelity guys. Benchmarking on BTC/gold ratio and Power law? We're almost there. 😎” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 04:02 | “Bitcoin will hit $1 million” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Aug 2026, 03:42 | “We likely don't need to take another price drop in this Bitcoin bear market, according to this original scaling analysis I did with the 200WMA. I explain in this weeks video: https://t.co/aNqwrZSMbh” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 16 Aug 2026, 15:48 | “Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,058 | 4h | $63,066 | +0.0% | correct |
| 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 | “🤔Why 200 weeks? Below is EVERY stretch Bitcoin has spent below its 200 week average since 2014, split by what the business cycle (by ISM) was doing: ISM under 50 (contraction): 210, 60, 14, 7 days ISM over 50 (expansion): 52, 20, 18, 18, 6, 1 days - - - The longest grind under the 200WMA during an EXPANSION was 52 days 🫨. During a contraction it ran 210, four times longer. Today the ISM sits at 55.6 and we are 15 days in... As long as the ISM holds above 50, history says we're talking weeks rather than months. Hold the line.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
