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Published 19 Aug 2026, 19:08 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
Quoting · 19 Aug 2026, 16:10 UTC · context given to the AI
⚡️⚡️⚡️A lot of people are waiting for Bitcoin to trade below its cost of production before they'll call a bottom. - - - That's a reasonable thing to want. It just hasn't happened since March 2020. 🧐 The bottom price has turned up shallower each cycle relative to the mean cost of production estimate. Cycle lows against the cost floor: 2011: 0.62x 2015: 0.83x 2018: 0.87x 2022: 1.12x 2026: 1.14x Of the 406 days Bitcoin has EVER spent below cost, 404 of them came before 2020. Not sure the trend will reverse this time, don't expect it to. Do you?One of they key reasons why I think we are most likely past Bitcoin's bear market bottom: Each cycle, the bottom price-to-production cost multiple goes up. We're past what I think will be the multiple for this cycle, 1.14x. https://t.co/odkzVxlHgw https://t.co/XvfSQX2CeDView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post
Uses only text available at publication time
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