Loading…

Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Aug 2026, 13:55 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

Quoting · 19 Aug 2026, 13:15 UTC · context given to the AI

The US Treasury has announced that it is "increasing liquidity support buyback operations for 10yr to 30yr bonds by at least double." Translated: The US Treasury blinked. https://t.co/87EIFjKgh6

Dollar-bearish, Bitcoin-bullish Runs against Ben Cowen's current dollar-strengthening theory. Should be interesting! https://t.co/Ct8I0vmuek

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“One of they key reasons why I think we are most likely past Bitcoin's bear market bottom: Each cycle, the bottom price-to-production cost multiple goes up. We're past what I think will be the multiple for this cycle, 1.14x. https://t.co/odkzVxlHgw https://t.co/XvfSQX2CeD”Repeat19 Aug 2026, 19:08 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Dollar-bearish, Bitcoin-bullish”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record