Published 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
🤔Why 200 weeks? Below is EVERY stretch Bitcoin has spent below its 200 week average since 2014, split by what the business cycle (by ISM) was doing: ISM under 50 (contraction): 210, 60, 14, 7 days ISM over 50 (expansion): 52, 20, 18, 18, 6, 1 days - - - The longest grind under the 200WMA during an EXPANSION was 52 days 🫨. During a contraction it ran 210, four times longer. Today the ISM sits at 55.6 and we are 15 days in... As long as the ISM holds above 50, history says we're talking weeks rather than months. Hold the line.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction