Loading…
@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
17
Top 83% · #18 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
19
4 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
41.2%
7 correct / 10 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-5.31%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-100.8%
Equal stake on all 19 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-4.19%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (23) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 41.0% | 12 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −127.6% | 55 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -4.19% | 15 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
10 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“would make sense if bitcoin never ticks green ever again after that”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 56.5% |
48 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.41 | 6 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“seeing this chart on the feed at resistance is not ideal https://t.co/ZfRxeIYLlm”
“buy the dip short the vix and fuck bitcoin guys in shambles”
“time for the guaranteed bitcoin leg down < 50k that’s guaranteed to happen for absolutely no reason”
“but absolutely zero chance we go up, it is impossible, zero. no way. because of “reasons””
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”
“micron is worth more than bitcoin https://t.co/M2cSHtscbw”
“we should all just long bitcoin for the bit why not”
“raging bull market in the few coins that actually matter. flows consolidate. bitcoin staircases higher. saylor sells and nothing happens. the rest of the trash continues to be trash. btc dominance down only. why not”