Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Jun 2026, 13:28 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 08:29 UTC

threadguy

@notthreadguy

Quoting · 25 Jun 2026, 03:53 UTC · context given to the AI

the amount of liquidity that is about to enter memory names now that legions of bitcoin bagholders finally press sell will be like nothing history has ever seen https://t.co/ybASpLqVPg

micron is worth more than bitcoin https://t.co/M2cSHtscbw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $58,186 at 25 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $60,084 at 26 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 60084.36 / 58186.39 − 1 = +3.26%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -3.26% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “micron is worth more than bitcoin https://t.co/M2cSHtscbw”
Confidence: 77%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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