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@swarmister · Unclaimed · Rank #68 (Top 77%) · All time · 1 hour horizon How it’s ranked
Satoshi Nakamoto is God, and I am His apostle
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
78
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
46.2%
36 correct / 42 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
-0.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.1%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+0.9%“$ETH looks even stronger than $BTC. It had been building up toward a breakout at 2k and accumulated enough momentum to surge all the way to the HVN around 2300. D1 TF And if we push a little harder, we’re not far from a breakout on W1 TF On a more local scale, Ether has reached resistance from above, and it would be desirable to see a pullback to the 2,100–2,150 zone now, to test the breakout volume. H4 TF”
Worst call
-1.7%“@Lenny51456285 I don't have a position yet; I'm not sure, but I've become a bit more bearish on Bitcoin than before. For now, trading $hype is too risky for me.”
Every token @swarmister has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 3 tokens, all time.
Last called 6 Nov 2026 · 66 calls since 9 May 2026
26 bullish · 40 bearish
Last called 3 Nov 2026 · 23 calls since 9 May 2026
11 bullish · 12 bearish
Last called 22 Oct 2026 · 9 calls since 9 May 2026
2 bullish · 7 bearish
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
214 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026, 09:37 | “$BTC Updated Plan. We have a D1 FVG that acts as a magnet. If the deal between Iran and the U.S. goes smoothly, I think we’ll remain bullish for longer, and we may see a breakout of the 30D RVWAP and a possible touch of the 90D, but in the form of a squeeze. I’m actively trading right now, mostly long, holding various assets from the AI sector, and I’m still holding a long position in $hype (I’ll close another 70% at 78). I think after reaching 69-72k, we’ll go down again. I’m still bearish, even though I’m bullish locally. My main short target is 48k, where we’ll need to watch for news drivers and make a major update. Good luck, and be careful with your extremely optimistic mood. After all, it could reverse here this Friday, and we’re very dependent on news from the Strait.” |
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All time · 1h
| BTC |
| ▼ Bearish |
| — |
| 1h |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 16 Jun 2026, 09:37 | “$BTC Updated Plan. We have a D1 FVG that acts as a magnet. If the deal between Iran and the U.S. goes smoothly, I think we’ll remain bullish for longer, and we may see a breakout of the 30D RVWAP and a possible touch of the 90D, but in the form of a squeeze. I’m actively trading right now, mostly long, holding various assets from the AI sector, and I’m still holding a long position in $hype (I’ll close another 70% at 78). I think after reaching 69-72k, we’ll go down again. I’m still bearish, even though I’m bullish locally. My main short target is 48k, where we’ll need to watch for news drivers and make a major update. Good luck, and be careful with your extremely optimistic mood. After all, it could reverse here this Friday, and we’re very dependent on news from the Strait.” | SOL | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 21:01 | “So. I’ve poured all my years of experience into these posts; I’ve literally dedicated my life to this field, and I’m in the market EVERY day, with no days off and only 4–5 hours of sleep a night. And here’s what I want to say to wrap things up That... Anyway, guys, the point is this: everything’s gonna be awesome. The main thing is just to sit tight and wait it out, or better yet, short the market. Don’t make any unnecessary, stupid mistakes, moves, and so on. Just don’t buy a bag of shit when your hands are itching. The market loves the patient, and everything will be awesome with the market. It’s a manipulative rollercoaster that swings every, every, every, every single time. Well, the patterns are basically all the same. We pump the price, the suckers come in, we sell to the suckers. We crash again, buy back in, pump it up, sell to the suckers, and repeat the cycle. So the carousel keeps spinning, and you just have to figure out when it stops, when the fun ends, and then kind of get off the carousel and just sit back and wait, I don’t know... Slowpoke mode and watch. Something like that. This is Swarmik signing off, giving everyone a hug. Leave comments, share your thoughts on the market. I’m always interested in reading your replies, as long as they’re decent and detailed. But if you’re posting comments like, fuck, I don’t know, some kind of bullshit, then I’ll say hi to your mom, though there are almost no replys like that :)” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 21:01 | “So. I’ve poured all my years of experience into these posts; I’ve literally dedicated my life to this field, and I’m in the market EVERY day, with no days off and only 4–5 hours of sleep a night. And here’s what I want to say to wrap things up That... Anyway, guys, the point is this: everything’s gonna be awesome. The main thing is just to sit tight and wait it out, or better yet, short the market. Don’t make any unnecessary, stupid mistakes, moves, and so on. Just don’t buy a bag of shit when your hands are itching. The market loves the patient, and everything will be awesome with the market. It’s a manipulative rollercoaster that swings every, every, every, every single time. Well, the patterns are basically all the same. We pump the price, the suckers come in, we sell to the suckers. We crash again, buy back in, pump it up, sell to the suckers, and repeat the cycle. So the carousel keeps spinning, and you just have to figure out when it stops, when the fun ends, and then kind of get off the carousel and just sit back and wait, I don’t know... Slowpoke mode and watch. Something like that. This is Swarmik signing off, giving everyone a hug. Leave comments, share your thoughts on the market. I’m always interested in reading your replies, as long as they’re decent and detailed. But if you’re posting comments like, fuck, I don’t know, some kind of bullshit, then I’ll say hi to your mom, though there are almost no replys like that :)” | SOL | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 20:43 | “$BTC + $SOL, fresh blood and what I’ve seen over nearly 8 years in brypto. Personally, I believe the zone where the market will ultimately bottom out is the range of approximately 30-45k for BTC. Somewhere in that range, I think, a true local bottom will begin to form, at which point it will be possible to start thinking about building positions. Btw, note how accurately I identified the peak for you. -39% from that point. There’s one more important point. Over the last few years, I’ve consistently observed the same pattern. After every major drop, people were convinced that the bottom had already been reached. This is evident with practically any coin. When $SOL dropped from 200 to 150, everyone was shouting about bargains. When it dropped to 90, “Holy shit, I’ll sell my wife and buy more Solana.” Then 60, then even lower. And at every stage, there were people who were convinced it couldn’t get any worse. There were countless temptations to buy more. And it seems to me that everyone who wanted to do so has already done so. Now they’re just sitting on their positions. So the market’s task right now is pretty simple—to drive out the last die-hard holders from these assets. Roughly speaking, only market makers and a minimal number of participants should remain in the project. And only after such a capitulation will a normal recovery cycle begin. There’s one more thought. Crypto is cyclical not only in terms of prices. It is cyclical in terms of generations of participants. When I entered the market almost 8 years ago, it was mostly miners, old forum guys, and high school students. NFTs didn’t even exist yet. For many, Metamask was something incomprehensible. Each cycle brought in new players. But in this cycle, I’ve hardly felt any new blood. And I think that’s exactly the problem. New blood doesn’t come at the bottom. It comes when everything is rising again, when the market looks strong, and literally every other person can make money. That’s when new liquidity appears, along with new participants who become exit liquidity. How long will this take... two years, three years, or less? I don’t know. These are just my observations. For now, my base case remains the same: a downward move, BTC in the 35–45k range, and USDT.D closer to 11%. And one more thing. Think back to past cycles. Every major bear market has been accompanied by major scams, bankruptcies, cascading liquidations, and high-profile collapses. Right now, there’s practically none of that. Yes, some DeFi dumps break down from time to time, but the market hasn’t yet seen events on the scale of FTX. And such events are usually part of a true capitulation. Because the entire system of loans, re-collateralization, and endless leverage eventually starts to break down. I can’t say who will be the next FTX, Saylor, or bitMine, but I think they’ll survive. However, it seems to me that the market still has to go through an event of this magnitude. It’s precisely after moments like these that new blood usually emerges.” | SOL | ▼ Bearish | $66.36 | 1h | $66.96 | +0.9% | incorrect |
| 11 Jun 2026, 20:43 | “$BTC + $SOL, fresh blood and what I’ve seen over nearly 8 years in brypto. Personally, I believe the zone where the market will ultimately bottom out is the range of approximately 30-45k for BTC. Somewhere in that range, I think, a true local bottom will begin to form, at which point it will be possible to start thinking about building positions. Btw, note how accurately I identified the peak for you. -39% from that point. There’s one more important point. Over the last few years, I’ve consistently observed the same pattern. After every major drop, people were convinced that the bottom had already been reached. This is evident with practically any coin. When $SOL dropped from 200 to 150, everyone was shouting about bargains. When it dropped to 90, “Holy shit, I’ll sell my wife and buy more Solana.” Then 60, then even lower. And at every stage, there were people who were convinced it couldn’t get any worse. There were countless temptations to buy more. And it seems to me that everyone who wanted to do so has already done so. Now they’re just sitting on their positions. So the market’s task right now is pretty simple—to drive out the last die-hard holders from these assets. Roughly speaking, only market makers and a minimal number of participants should remain in the project. And only after such a capitulation will a normal recovery cycle begin. There’s one more thought. Crypto is cyclical not only in terms of prices. It is cyclical in terms of generations of participants. When I entered the market almost 8 years ago, it was mostly miners, old forum guys, and high school students. NFTs didn’t even exist yet. For many, Metamask was something incomprehensible. Each cycle brought in new players. But in this cycle, I’ve hardly felt any new blood. And I think that’s exactly the problem. New blood doesn’t come at the bottom. It comes when everything is rising again, when the market looks strong, and literally every other person can make money. That’s when new liquidity appears, along with new participants who become exit liquidity. How long will this take... two years, three years, or less? I don’t know. These are just my observations. For now, my base case remains the same: a downward move, BTC in the 35–45k range, and USDT.D closer to 11%. And one more thing. Think back to past cycles. Every major bear market has been accompanied by major scams, bankruptcies, cascading liquidations, and high-profile collapses. Right now, there’s practically none of that. Yes, some DeFi dumps break down from time to time, but the market hasn’t yet seen events on the scale of FTX. And such events are usually part of a true capitulation. Because the entire system of loans, re-collateralization, and endless leverage eventually starts to break down. I can’t say who will be the next FTX, Saylor, or bitMine, but I think they’ll survive. However, it seems to me that the market still has to go through an event of this magnitude. It’s precisely after moments like these that new blood usually emerges.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 19:44 | “Market Sentiment. People who have already been completely crushed by the market are still here, trying to do something. They’re working on projects, farming points, buying coins, trading Sol-memes, and continuing to look for a chance to bounce back. That’s exactly why I disagree with those who say the market has already cleaned itself out enough (though that will happen soon). Nothing has changed. I interact with people a lot, read a huge number of chats every day, and perhaps see this sentiment a little more deeply than most. Guys, it’s not as simple as it seems. Just look at the volumes on Hyperliquid. The market is in a shitty state, a huge number of assets are trading near their lows, and volumes on HL remain practically at all-time highs. To me, this is direct proof that people are still in the market and continue to actively risk their capital. There’s another important factor. While crypto is trying to find a bottom, the stock market is doing great. The S&P 500, AI companies, and manufacturers of chips, processors, and the entire infrastructure surrounding artificial intelligence are near all-time highs or setting new ones. Many companies have never seen prices like this before. Liquidity is flowing there right now. And I have a simple question: who is supposed to come into crypto and start pumping it with liquidity? I don’t see an answer yet. And getting back to sentiment. Just for fun, type the phrase “lost everything on crypto” into YouTube, X, or any other search engine (you can use Grok). You’ll see a huge number of stories. And we’re not talking about some small-time players here. There are literally guys in their 20s and 25s telling how they lost $5k, $10k, $20k, $30k, and more. And there are far more stories like this than many people realize. That’s exactly why I don’t buy into the nice-sounding stories about capitulation, market cleansing, and the start of a new cycle. To me, it all looks like the worst is yet to come, but I’m opening more short positions, so I’m okay.” | SOL | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 19:44 | “Market Sentiment. People who have already been completely crushed by the market are still here, trying to do something. They’re working on projects, farming points, buying coins, trading Sol-memes, and continuing to look for a chance to bounce back. That’s exactly why I disagree with those who say the market has already cleaned itself out enough (though that will happen soon). Nothing has changed. I interact with people a lot, read a huge number of chats every day, and perhaps see this sentiment a little more deeply than most. Guys, it’s not as simple as it seems. Just look at the volumes on Hyperliquid. The market is in a shitty state, a huge number of assets are trading near their lows, and volumes on HL remain practically at all-time highs. To me, this is direct proof that people are still in the market and continue to actively risk their capital. There’s another important factor. While crypto is trying to find a bottom, the stock market is doing great. The S&P 500, AI companies, and manufacturers of chips, processors, and the entire infrastructure surrounding artificial intelligence are near all-time highs or setting new ones. Many companies have never seen prices like this before. Liquidity is flowing there right now. And I have a simple question: who is supposed to come into crypto and start pumping it with liquidity? I don’t see an answer yet. And getting back to sentiment. Just for fun, type the phrase “lost everything on crypto” into YouTube, X, or any other search engine (you can use Grok). You’ll see a huge number of stories. And we’re not talking about some small-time players here. There are literally guys in their 20s and 25s telling how they lost $5k, $10k, $20k, $30k, and more. And there are far more stories like this than many people realize. That’s exactly why I don’t buy into the nice-sounding stories about capitulation, market cleansing, and the start of a new cycle. To me, it all looks like the worst is yet to come, but I’m opening more short positions, so I’m okay.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 19:44 | “Market Sentiment. People who have already been completely crushed by the market are still here, trying to do something. They’re working on projects, farming points, buying coins, trading Sol-memes, and continuing to look for a chance to bounce back. That’s exactly why I disagree with those who say the market has already cleaned itself out enough (though that will happen soon). Nothing has changed. I interact with people a lot, read a huge number of chats every day, and perhaps see this sentiment a little more deeply than most. Guys, it’s not as simple as it seems. Just look at the volumes on Hyperliquid. The market is in a shitty state, a huge number of assets are trading near their lows, and volumes on HL remain practically at all-time highs. To me, this is direct proof that people are still in the market and continue to actively risk their capital. There’s another important factor. While crypto is trying to find a bottom, the stock market is doing great. The S&P 500, AI companies, and manufacturers of chips, processors, and the entire infrastructure surrounding artificial intelligence are near all-time highs or setting new ones. Many companies have never seen prices like this before. Liquidity is flowing there right now. And I have a simple question: who is supposed to come into crypto and start pumping it with liquidity? I don’t see an answer yet. And getting back to sentiment. Just for fun, type the phrase “lost everything on crypto” into YouTube, X, or any other search engine (you can use Grok). You’ll see a huge number of stories. And we’re not talking about some small-time players here. There are literally guys in their 20s and 25s telling how they lost $5k, $10k, $20k, $30k, and more. And there are far more stories like this than many people realize. That’s exactly why I don’t buy into the nice-sounding stories about capitulation, market cleansing, and the start of a new cycle. To me, it all looks like the worst is yet to come, but I’m opening more short positions, so I’m okay.” | ETH | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 19:12 | “We can see the same thing on $USDT.D + $USDC.D (and $BTC.D) + my custom indicators. The fact is that the 2022 highs haven’t been surpassed to this day. And, as I see it, this is the target we’ll gradually be moving toward. Well, that’s pretty much it. It’s simple. USDT dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. And USDC dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. Well, that’s about it. Simple. Check out Bitcoin’s dominance. And here, I’ve had this zone marked out for a very long time. I called it the “Zone for snatching assets from retards.” For me, the take was as simple as it gets: Bitcoin is worth 120k. If Bitcoin continues to fall now, super-cheap altcoins, as many thought back then, will become five times cheaper. So, let’s say you bought some, I don’t know, $ARB at $2, and it fell to, let’s say, 20 cents. So from those 20 cents, it still has to drop another 99% to find its final bottom. And basically, that’s exactly what happens. In other words, all the take-profit levels that were mentioned over the last six months have played out one way or another. Also, take a look at my custom indicator that I made for myself. This is DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT. Here, you can clearly see how cycles generally work in crypto. That is, each cycle there is roughly 17 years, 21, 22, 23 years; here you can see that the bottom forms as soon as we go below this conditional range (marked on the chart). As long as we’re trading above this range, that’s it… we’ve got a bull market, euphoria, and all that crap. But, as you can see, we still haven’t, in principle, broken below this range, and here, well, we haven’t traded through it for a while. It’s the same picture, there, roughly speaking, on a similar chart, only not with Bitcoin, but, to put it bluntly, with $ETH. The thing is, if you look at the history, every time we’ve pulled back and traded lower, some kind of bottom has formed there. But we’re only just now pulling back to that level on Ether. And how much longer Ether needs to consolidate here before everything is okay… before assets are accumulated by market makers and so on, well, tbh, I don’t really understand. And putting these factors together, what we’re seeing on USDT.D suggests that consolidation and a pullback are likely, most likely downward. Plus, with USDC.D, it also looks like the trading will likely lead to an upward move. That is, when dominance goes up, the market falls. And with Bitcoin, I just remember how everyone was waiting for it—the higher Bitcoin went... the harder and sharper it would fall in dominance by 30-20%. “How we’re all going to get rich.” But I’ll say it again: no one is going to pour anything from a super-factory with milk into a barrel of shit when there’s shit in there. It just doesn’t make sense, the product will spoil. But as soon as the barrel of shit is cleaned out, thanks to these “true Degens,” the trader gurus. Then, yes, the cool milk factory will be able to pour some portion of its liquidity into the former barrel of shit. So, in other words, taking all factors into account, we conclude that the bottom hasn’t formed yet and never did. Plus, we throw in sentiment, sentiment, guys, total shit… I’ll talk about that in the next posts.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | $63,462 | 1h | $63,468 | +0.0% | incorrect |
| 11 Jun 2026, 19:12 | “We can see the same thing on $USDT.D + $USDC.D (and $BTC.D) + my custom indicators. The fact is that the 2022 highs haven’t been surpassed to this day. And, as I see it, this is the target we’ll gradually be moving toward. Well, that’s pretty much it. It’s simple. USDT dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. And USDC dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. Well, that’s about it. Simple. Check out Bitcoin’s dominance. And here, I’ve had this zone marked out for a very long time. I called it the “Zone for snatching assets from retards.” For me, the take was as simple as it gets: Bitcoin is worth 120k. If Bitcoin continues to fall now, super-cheap altcoins, as many thought back then, will become five times cheaper. So, let’s say you bought some, I don’t know, $ARB at $2, and it fell to, let’s say, 20 cents. So from those 20 cents, it still has to drop another 99% to find its final bottom. And basically, that’s exactly what happens. In other words, all the take-profit levels that were mentioned over the last six months have played out one way or another. Also, take a look at my custom indicator that I made for myself. This is DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT. Here, you can clearly see how cycles generally work in crypto. That is, each cycle there is roughly 17 years, 21, 22, 23 years; here you can see that the bottom forms as soon as we go below this conditional range (marked on the chart). As long as we’re trading above this range, that’s it… we’ve got a bull market, euphoria, and all that crap. But, as you can see, we still haven’t, in principle, broken below this range, and here, well, we haven’t traded through it for a while. It’s the same picture, there, roughly speaking, on a similar chart, only not with Bitcoin, but, to put it bluntly, with $ETH. The thing is, if you look at the history, every time we’ve pulled back and traded lower, some kind of bottom has formed there. But we’re only just now pulling back to that level on Ether. And how much longer Ether needs to consolidate here before everything is okay… before assets are accumulated by market makers and so on, well, tbh, I don’t really understand. And putting these factors together, what we’re seeing on USDT.D suggests that consolidation and a pullback are likely, most likely downward. Plus, with USDC.D, it also looks like the trading will likely lead to an upward move. That is, when dominance goes up, the market falls. And with Bitcoin, I just remember how everyone was waiting for it—the higher Bitcoin went... the harder and sharper it would fall in dominance by 30-20%. “How we’re all going to get rich.” But I’ll say it again: no one is going to pour anything from a super-factory with milk into a barrel of shit when there’s shit in there. It just doesn’t make sense, the product will spoil. But as soon as the barrel of shit is cleaned out, thanks to these “true Degens,” the trader gurus. Then, yes, the cool milk factory will be able to pour some portion of its liquidity into the former barrel of shit. So, in other words, taking all factors into account, we conclude that the bottom hasn’t formed yet and never did. Plus, we throw in sentiment, sentiment, guys, total shit… I’ll talk about that in the next posts.” | ETH | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 18:18 | “So, today we’ll talk about the market as a whole. We’ll look at $BTC, $ETH, $USDT.D, and a few metrics I rely on. Yes, we’ve entered the 8.2–9.2% dominance range. But, given the current sentiment and the data I use in my analysis, I would revise my Tether Dominance scenario toward 11–11.5%. The reason is simple. There are still a huge number of people in the market who continue to average down on their favorite coins, take out margin loans, and stubbornly ignore what’s happening. This crowd still needs to be flushed out of the market. And, in my view, the final picture should look exactly like this. Let’s take a hypothetical Starknet or any other similar coin. There should be no one left in it except market makers. Hypothetical global BTC market makers and local players like GSR, Wintermute, and others. And only after that will the market likely be ready for a full-fledged reversal. Where might this happen? Most likely, with Tether dominance around 11%. After a prolonged consolidation phase, which I expect to see in the coming months. That is precisely where, in my opinion, the market bottom will begin to form. I don’t yet see any alternative scenario in which the market sharply reverses upward and begins a steady rise right now. Looking at the bigger picture, we have a green channel within which the market has been moving for quite some time. Before that, there was a lower red channel in which we traded for nearly five years. Then came 2020, the market crashed, and a new upward range formed. Following the bear market of 2021–2022, another channel formed higher up. And, most likely, it is within this channel that we will continue to move within the current cycle. Therefore, my base scenario remains the same: a prolonged trading range, the gradual weeding out of weak participants, and only then the formation of the final bottom in the indicated area. For now, this scenario seems the most logical to me.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
| 11 Jun 2026, 10:02 | “59->57->64 on $hype. That sounds about right. I don't know, maybe Bitcoin will hit 61.7–62 again today, and then it'll likely rise all the way to 65. I hope I won't be in the red by then, because that's not a pleasant feeling. https://t.co/OshKXZEgMX https://t.co/yRrYy8pWwL” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $62,780 | 1h | $63,112 | +0.5% | correct |
| 10 Jun 2026, 18:22 | “@FalconyFalcon Open any weekly chart for any “tech-focused blockchain” and you’ll see that every time, everyone was shouting that “yes, this is the bottom.” Ethereum is the same thing, but on a larger scale. There will be a rebound and a reversal, but not here at all.” | ETH | ▼ Bearish | $1,629 | 1h | $1,624 | -0.3% | correct |
| 10 Jun 2026, 10:55 | “I've been working on updating this analysis for two days now, and everything from this thread has worked out (read it) But I need to make some adjustments and come up with new ideas, wish me luck, I'm almost done https://t.co/ucns6NuQ9I https://t.co/YxMoQBkX1H” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 1h | — | — | unscored |
