Prediction evidence

sw

swarmik

@swarmister

$BTC + $SOL, fresh blood and what I’ve seen over nearly 8 years in brypto. Personally, I believe the zone where the market will ultimately bottom out is the range of approximately 30-45k for BTC. Somewhere in that range, I think, a true local bottom will begin to form, at which point it will be possible to start thinking about building positions. Btw, note how accurately I identified the peak for you. -39% from that point. There’s one more important point. Over the last few years, I’ve consistently observed the same pattern. After every major drop, people were convinced that the bottom had already been reached. This is evident with practically any coin. When $SOL dropped from 200 to 150, everyone was shouting about bargains. When it dropped to 90, “Holy shit, I’ll sell my wife and buy more Solana.” Then 60, then even lower. And at every stage, there were people who were convinced it couldn’t get any worse. There were countless temptations to buy more. And it seems to me that everyone who wanted to do so has already done so. Now they’re just sitting on their positions. So the market’s task right now is pretty simple—to drive out the last die-hard holders from these assets. Roughly speaking, only market makers and a minimal number of participants should remain in the project. And only after such a capitulation will a normal recovery cycle begin. There’s one more thought. Crypto is cyclical not only in terms of prices. It is cyclical in terms of generations of participants. When I entered the market almost 8 years ago, it was mostly miners, old forum guys, and high school students. NFTs didn’t even exist yet. For many, Metamask was something incomprehensible. Each cycle brought in new players. But in this cycle, I’ve hardly felt any new blood. And I think that’s exactly the problem. New blood doesn’t come at the bottom. It comes when everything is rising again, when the market looks strong, and literally every other person can make money. That’s when new liquidity appears, along with new participants who become exit liquidity. How long will this take... two years, three years, or less? I don’t know. These are just my observations. For now, my base case remains the same: a downward move, BTC in the 35–45k range, and USDT.D closer to 11%. And one more thing. Think back to past cycles. Every major bear market has been accompanied by major scams, bankruptcies, cascading liquidations, and high-profile collapses. Right now, there’s practically none of that. Yes, some DeFi dumps break down from time to time, but the market hasn’t yet seen events on the scale of FTX. And such events are usually part of a true capitulation. Because the entire system of loans, re-collateralization, and endless leverage eventually starts to break down. I can’t say who will be the next FTX, Saylor, or bitMine, but I think they’ll survive. However, it seems to me that the market still has to go through an event of this magnitude. It’s precisely after moments like these that new blood usually emerges.