Published 11 Jun 2026, 19:44 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC
swarmik
@swarmister
Quoting · 11 Jun 2026, 19:14 UTC · context given to the AI
We can see the same thing on $USDT.D + $USDC.D (and $BTC.D) + my custom indicators. The fact is that the 2022 highs haven’t been surpassed to this day. And, as I see it, this is the target we’ll gradually be moving toward. Well, that’s pretty much it. It’s simple. USDT dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. And USDC dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. Well, that’s about it. Simple. Check out Bitcoin’s dominance. And here, I’ve had this zone marked out for a very long time. I called it the “Zone for snatching assets from retards.” For me, the take was as simple as it gets: Bitcoin is worth 120k. If Bitcoin continues to fall now, super-cheap altcoins, as many thought back then, will become five times cheaper. So, let’s say you bought some, I don’t know, $ARB at $2, and it fell to, let’s say, 20 cents. So from those 20 cents, it still has to drop another 99% to find its final bottom. And basically, that’s exactly what happens. In other words, all the takes that were mentioned over the last six months have played out one way or another. Also, take a look at my custom indicator that I made for myself. This is DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT. Here, you can clearly see how cycles generally work in crypto. That is, each cycle there is roughly 17 years, 21, 22, 23 years; here you can see that the bottom forms as soon as we go below this conditional range (marked on the chart). As long as we’re trading above this range, that’s it… we’ve got a bull market, euphoria, and all that crap. But, as you can see, we still haven’t, in principle, broken below this range, and here, well, we haven’t traded through it for a while. It’s the same picture, there, roughly speaking, on a similar chart, only not with Bitcoin, but, to put it bluntly, with $ETH. The thing is, if you look at the history, every time we’ve pulled back and traded lower, some kind of bottom has formed there. But we’re only just now pulling back to that level on Ether. And how much longer Ether needs to consolidate here before everything is okay… before assets are accumulated by market makers and so on, well, tbh, I don’t really understand. And putting these factors together, what we’re seeing on USDT.D suggests that consolidation and a pullback are likely, most likely downward. Plus, with USDC.D, it also looks like the trading will likely lead to an upward move. That is, when dominance goes up, the market falls. And with Bitcoin, I just remember how everyone was waiting for it—the higher Bitcoin went... the harder and sharper it would fall in dominance by 30-20%. “How we’re all going to get rich.” But I’ll say it again: no one is going to pour anything from a super-factory with milk into a barrel of shit when there’s shit in there. It just doesn’t make sense, the product will spoil. But as soon as the barrel of shit is cleaned out, thanks to these “true Degens,” the trader gurus. Then, yes, the cool milk factory will be able to pour some portion of its liquidity into the former barrel of shit. So, in other words, taking all factors into account, we conclude that the bottom hasn’t formed yet and never did. Plus, we throw in sentiment, sentiment, guys, total shit… I’ll talk about that in the next posts.Market Sentiment. People who have already been completely crushed by the market are still here, trying to do something. They’re working on projects, farming points, buying coins, trading Sol-memes, and continuing to look for a chance to bounce back. That’s exactly why I disagree with those who say the market has already cleaned itself out enough (though that will happen soon). Nothing has changed. I interact with people a lot, read a huge number of chats every day, and perhaps see this sentiment a little more deeply than most. Guys, it’s not as simple as it seems. Just look at the volumes on Hyperliquid. The market is in a shitty state, a huge number of assets are trading near their lows, and volumes on HL remain practically at all-time highs. To me, this is direct proof that people are still in the market and continue to actively risk their capital. There’s another important factor. While crypto is trying to find a bottom, the stock market is doing great. The S&P 500, AI companies, and manufacturers of chips, processors, and the entire infrastructure surrounding artificial intelligence are near all-time highs or setting new ones. Many companies have never seen prices like this before. Liquidity is flowing there right now. And I have a simple question: who is supposed to come into crypto and start pumping it with liquidity? I don’t see an answer yet. And getting back to sentiment. Just for fun, type the phrase “lost everything on crypto” into YouTube, X, or any other search engine (you can use Grok). You’ll see a huge number of stories. And we’re not talking about some small-time players here. There are literally guys in their 20s and 25s telling how they lost $5k, $10k, $20k, $30k, and more. And there are far more stories like this than many people realize. That’s exactly why I don’t buy into the nice-sounding stories about capitulation, market cleansing, and the start of a new cycle. To me, it all looks like the worst is yet to come, but I’m opening more short positions, so I’m okay.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post
Uses only text available at publication time
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