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Published 11 Jun 2026, 18:18 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC
swarmik
@swarmister
Quoting · 9 May 2026, 14:50 UTC · context given to the AI
$BTC / Market It’s all over, and you can see that from all the indicators I mentioned in the quote. I’ll say it again: we need fresh blood, and the old blood needs to be thrown overboard. And how do we do that? Only by completely flushing out all that old blood that’s still sitting in the market. Take a look at your favorite influencers. Yeah, some of them have started posting about the market less often, making fewer videos, but go check out Hyperliquid. Look at the trading volumes. They’re at all-time highs. And you ask yourself: “The market is in the toilet, so who are these people who keep pumping up the volume on Hyperliquid?” It’s a strange picture, you have to admit. And to me, it looks like the market is only going to keep dying in the near future. Yes, I said earlier that we might bounce back somewhere in the 80–83 range (maybe even 85). Take another look. But this is most likely the stop point. And from here, I would expect further downward movement. I didn’t mention global liquidity on the clusters and so on, although that also supports my point, BUT I won’t post that, otherwise the posts would be twice as long.So, today we’ll talk about the market as a whole. We’ll look at $BTC, $ETH, $USDT.D, and a few metrics I rely on. Yes, we’ve entered the 8.2–9.2% dominance range. But, given the current sentiment and the data I use in my analysis, I would revise my Tether Dominance scenario toward 11–11.5%. The reason is simple. There are still a huge number of people in the market who continue to average down on their favorite coins, take out margin loans, and stubbornly ignore what’s happening. This crowd still needs to be flushed out of the market. And, in my view, the final picture should look exactly like this. Let’s take a hypothetical Starknet or any other similar coin. There should be no one left in it except market makers. Hypothetical global BTC market makers and local players like GSR, Wintermute, and others. And only after that will the market likely be ready for a full-fledged reversal. Where might this happen? Most likely, with Tether dominance around 11%. After a prolonged consolidation phase, which I expect to see in the coming months. That is precisely where, in my opinion, the market bottom will begin to form. I don’t yet see any alternative scenario in which the market sharply reverses upward and begins a steady rise right now. Looking at the bigger picture, we have a green channel within which the market has been moving for quite some time. Before that, there was a lower red channel in which we traded for nearly five years. Then came 2020, the market crashed, and a new upward range formed. Following the bear market of 2021–2022, another channel formed higher up. And, most likely, it is within this channel that we will continue to move within the current cycle. Therefore, my base scenario remains the same: a prolonged trading range, the gradual weeding out of weak participants, and only then the formation of the final bottom in the indicated area. For now, this scenario seems the most logical to me.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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