Published 11 Jun 2026, 19:12 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC
swarmik
@swarmister
Quoting · 11 Jun 2026, 18:18 UTC · context given to the AI
So, today we’ll talk about the market as a whole. We’ll look at $BTC, $ETH, $USDT.D, and a few metrics I rely on. Yes, we’ve entered the 8.2–9.2% dominance range. But, given the current sentiment and the data I use in my analysis, I would revise my Tether Dominance scenario toward 11–11.5%. The reason is simple. There are still a huge number of people in the market who continue to average down on their favorite coins, take out margin loans, and stubbornly ignore what’s happening. This crowd still needs to be flushed out of the market. And, in my view, the final picture should look exactly like this. Let’s take a hypothetical Starknet or any other similar coin. There should be no one left in it except market makers. Hypothetical global BTC market makers and local players like GSR, Wintermute, and others. And only after that will the market likely be ready for a full-fledged reversal. Where might this happen? Most likely, with Tether dominance around 11%. After a prolonged consolidation phase, which I expect to see in the coming months. That is precisely where, in my opinion, the market bottom will begin to form. I don’t yet see any alternative scenario in which the market sharply reverses upward and begins a steady rise right now. Looking at the bigger picture, we have a green channel within which the market has been moving for quite some time. Before that, there was a lower red channel in which we traded for nearly five years. Then came 2020, the market crashed, and a new upward range formed. Following the bear market of 2021–2022, another channel formed higher up. And, most likely, it is within this channel that we will continue to move within the current cycle. Therefore, my base scenario remains the same: a prolonged trading range, the gradual weeding out of weak participants, and only then the formation of the final bottom in the indicated area. For now, this scenario seems the most logical to me.We can see the same thing on $USDT.D + $USDC.D (and $BTC.D) + my custom indicators. The fact is that the 2022 highs haven’t been surpassed to this day. And, as I see it, this is the target we’ll gradually be moving toward. Well, that’s pretty much it. It’s simple. USDT dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. And USDC dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. Well, that’s about it. Simple. Check out Bitcoin’s dominance. And here, I’ve had this zone marked out for a very long time. I called it the “Zone for snatching assets from retards.” For me, the take was as simple as it gets: Bitcoin is worth 120k. If Bitcoin continues to fall now, super-cheap altcoins, as many thought back then, will become five times cheaper. So, let’s say you bought some, I don’t know, $ARB at $2, and it fell to, let’s say, 20 cents. So from those 20 cents, it still has to drop another 99% to find its final bottom. And basically, that’s exactly what happens. In other words, all the take-profit levels that were mentioned over the last six months have played out one way or another. Also, take a look at my custom indicator that I made for myself. This is DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT. Here, you can clearly see how cycles generally work in crypto. That is, each cycle there is roughly 17 years, 21, 22, 23 years; here you can see that the bottom forms as soon as we go below this conditional range (marked on the chart). As long as we’re trading above this range, that’s it… we’ve got a bull market, euphoria, and all that crap. But, as you can see, we still haven’t, in principle, broken below this range, and here, well, we haven’t traded through it for a while. It’s the same picture, there, roughly speaking, on a similar chart, only not with Bitcoin, but, to put it bluntly, with $ETH. The thing is, if you look at the history, every time we’ve pulled back and traded lower, some kind of bottom has formed there. But we’re only just now pulling back to that level on Ether. And how much longer Ether needs to consolidate here before everything is okay… before assets are accumulated by market makers and so on, well, tbh, I don’t really understand. And putting these factors together, what we’re seeing on USDT.D suggests that consolidation and a pullback are likely, most likely downward. Plus, with USDC.D, it also looks like the trading will likely lead to an upward move. That is, when dominance goes up, the market falls. And with Bitcoin, I just remember how everyone was waiting for it—the higher Bitcoin went... the harder and sharper it would fall in dominance by 30-20%. “How we’re all going to get rich.” But I’ll say it again: no one is going to pour anything from a super-factory with milk into a barrel of shit when there’s shit in there. It just doesn’t make sense, the product will spoil. But as soon as the barrel of shit is cleaned out, thanks to these “true Degens,” the trader gurus. Then, yes, the cool milk factory will be able to pour some portion of its liquidity into the former barrel of shit. So, in other words, taking all factors into account, we conclude that the bottom hasn’t formed yet and never did. Plus, we throw in sentiment, sentiment, guys, total shit… I’ll talk about that in the next posts.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63552.05 / 63541.49 − 1 = +0.0%d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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