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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #12 (Top 13%) · All time · Stated horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
31
7 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
71.0%
22 correct / 9 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+5.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−1.5%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
0
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+23.5%“The power law of Bitcoin IN GOLD has taken quite a hit when you keep it honest by stopping training data in Aug 2020. Here's why I don't believe the same will happen in dollars, and rather price will continue to grow at roughly t^6. Bitcoin and the dollar both have monetary policies. One is a halving schedule, the other is a committee targeting a couple percent a year and mostly hitting it. Gold has neither. The t⁶ is a network property, addresses are doing roughly t³ x Metcalfe. The dollar is like a valve someone's hand is always on. Gold is more like the weather.”
Worst call
-23.8%“Only positive Macro signs for BTC since early March, particularly with respect to gold BTC/Au has climbed back late '25 levels, ~16.5oz/BTC The potential Au->BTC rotation signal I flagged in March, rather than letting more air out of BTC, allowed a persistent rally thru today - - - This looks more like momentum building than a head fake before new lows Watch out bears.”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · Stated horizon
9 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026, 14:30 | “Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA” |
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All time · stated
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $82,639 |
| 30d |
| $75,852 |
| -8.2% |
| incorrect |
| 5 Oct 2026, 19:19 | “@dotkrueger Power law is the ultimate math orange pill” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,732 | 30d | $79,916 | -6.8% | incorrect |
| 2 Oct 2026, 00:11 | “BTC price level looking great here at $84,830 The longer we hover above the support rainbow, the stronger the bull run case becomes, brick by brick, solidly in accumulation. Currently a 13.6% on the power law quantile framework. https://t.co/B33OsrVohx” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,763 | 30d | $77,534 | -8.5% | incorrect |
| 30 Sept 2026, 14:23 | “Bitcoin's price is only about $11,500 under what a living anonymous legend - Dacoinminster, anonymous discoverer of Bitcoin's price power law and living legend - predicted the price would be back in 2013. - - - That's just 15% below his prediction, a gap we are sure to be closing here as we move up in the bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $83,754 | 30d | $77,061 | -8.0% | incorrect |
| 26 Sept 2026, 16:52 | “@CRYPT0N1TE No, it assumes it will be somethinf like $100k or higher next year. Its the .05 quantile.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,102 | 30d | $80,100 | -4.8% | incorrect |
| 23 Sept 2026, 20:19 | “Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days. 9/10 times this means continued moves upward. BULLISH. Been waiting for that arrow to appear 🔥 https://t.co/hHItsNw3VN” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,235 | 30d | $81,311 | -3.5% | incorrect |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:54 | “You're in the perfect zone- bullish structure, yet still highly undervalued $BTC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $85,832 | 30d | $84,495 | -1.6% | incorrect |
| 26 May 2026, 18:40 | “The business cycle returning will melt faces off Bitcoin bears https://t.co/hOsAlxp9MD” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $75,709 | 30d | $59,420 | -21.5% | incorrect |
| 11 May 2026, 16:15 | “Only positive Macro signs for BTC since early March, particularly with respect to gold BTC/Au has climbed back late '25 levels, ~16.5oz/BTC The potential Au->BTC rotation signal I flagged in March, rather than letting more air out of BTC, allowed a persistent rally thru today - - - This looks more like momentum building than a head fake before new lows Watch out bears.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,552 | 30d | $62,170 | -23.8% | incorrect |
