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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #12 (Top 13%) · All time · Stated horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
31
7 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
71.0%
22 correct / 9 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+5.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−1.5%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
0
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+23.5%“The power law of Bitcoin IN GOLD has taken quite a hit when you keep it honest by stopping training data in Aug 2020. Here's why I don't believe the same will happen in dollars, and rather price will continue to grow at roughly t^6. Bitcoin and the dollar both have monetary policies. One is a halving schedule, the other is a committee targeting a couple percent a year and mostly hitting it. Gold has neither. The t⁶ is a network property, addresses are doing roughly t³ x Metcalfe. The dollar is like a valve someone's hand is always on. Gold is more like the weather.”
Worst call
-23.8%“Only positive Macro signs for BTC since early March, particularly with respect to gold BTC/Au has climbed back late '25 levels, ~16.5oz/BTC The potential Au->BTC rotation signal I flagged in March, rather than letting more air out of BTC, allowed a persistent rally thru today - - - This looks more like momentum building than a head fake before new lows Watch out bears.”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · Stated horizon
155 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026, 18:54 | “This might be one of the most insane and bullish signals in Bitcoin today. Long-term holder supply in loss. Literally only spikes at each cycle bottom. You're welcome. *Note to self - I need to start getting more into on-chain analysis. Very helpful to couple with price/macro https://t.co/Sts5Io3yhM” |
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All time · stated
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| — |
| 30d |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 29 Jun 2026, 16:37 | “Here is your Bitcoin Bear Market breakdown: an at-a-glance characterization of every bear market, color-coded across each type of chart, including • Max drawdown % vs. duration • Bear markets highlighted on full price history • Trajectories from each previous peak - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - At the moment, this Bear looks more like the mini-2019-2020 Bear, where we plunged due to the COVID scare toward the end. While we most likely won't see anything like the 2011 Bear again due to limited liquidity, I think there is a lot more room for the current Bear to play out in the space BETWEEN the green, orange and purple bears and the red (mini) bear. The market structure is always evolving (and has in fact meaningfully evolved since 2021; Bitcoin has transformed from an isolated retail speculation into a highly institutionalized macro asset) and the trend, even if small, is toward shallower drawdowns.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 26 Jun 2026, 14:44 | “Bitcoin's price at 0.637x residual implies a fair-value target price of ~$96k, hopefully by year-end. We barely scraped bubble territory, suggesting this hasn't been a true bull run. Watching for mean reversion. NFA. #Bitcoin #Investing https://t.co/9iJEYWzKQ3” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 24 Jun 2026, 18:41 | “Bitcoin prices here aren't going to last long. In other news, here's a 2-min clip of me breaking down a table of the expected time it will take to accumulate different Bitcoin target stacks. The difference of a few hundred $/week can mean many, many more years of stacking! https://t.co/QoGu1uK9ex” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 22 Jun 2026, 15:57 | “Check this out. There's a strong case that Bitcoin's fair value should be done through a 'Bubble-Free' lens. That is, REMOVE the quasi-cyclical bull run 'bubbles' before analyzing residuals/fair-value. Now we see the "BUBBLE-FREE" price residuals. . . . . Turns out even in Bubble-Free, we have essentially already bounced off what was the worst residual we saw in 2022 (or very close, within error). I think this supports that there is a good chance the actual current cycle bottom is behind us. Notice the Bubble-Free residuals distribution (right-edge of the last frame) - that lower tail of the distribution has been bounced off, and we now still sit at extreme/deep value. What a time to buy.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,765 | 30d | $66,014 | +1.9% | correct |
| 20 Jun 2026, 21:56 | “Ever wondered how long it takes to stack 1 Bitcoin by saving $100/week? In 2014, it took just 1 month. In 2020, 8 years. Today? It's impossible. The 'number go up' is real, and the window is closing fast. #Bitcoin #Investing https://t.co/W0M9uGq1b5” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Jun 2026, 21:41 | “Now at $64,200, Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly at the [1st quantile] on the support rainbow 🌈 - - - Looking to the last cycle bottom region (last quarter of 2022), the price traced more or less perfectly along the 1st quantile for around ~67 days before popping back up above the 10th quantile and above. If this repeats, we would expect to jump back off the support rainbow altogether around August 9th, 2026.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 13 Jun 2026, 04:04 | “First slide of my keynote talk at @BTCPrague I kicked it off asking how long it would have taken in past years to stack 1 BTC, compared to if you started today, and then if you started 6 years from now. Soon it will become impossible to stack 1 coin with $1000/week DCA. https://t.co/DnDdVacIty” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 10 Jun 2026, 16:31 | “@BTC_broo No lie detected. Stack early, stack hard.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 7 Jun 2026, 21:14 | “Whatever becomes of the Bitcoin cycles going forward, halving-pinned, business cycle-pinned, whether the bubbles continue or cease altogether... if you look at this and think "Bitcoin is over," you are in for a truly generational fumble. https://t.co/chCOPidfzS” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 4 Jun 2026, 23:08 | “@stoolpresidente Bottom is near” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 1 Jun 2026, 16:40 | “ISM PMI prints 54 for May, exceeding the forecast of 53. Great news. Historically we need to head above ~55 to set the stage for Bitcoin fireworks 🎆. Also ✅️ Prices came down ✅️ Employment came up ✅️ New orders came up https://t.co/yjbgU0H8FS https://t.co/TdvDFnW7Qn” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 27 May 2026, 15:29 | “My adjusted estimate of Bitcoin's cycle bottom being behind us (~$60k) is roughly 2/3 odds.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
| 26 May 2026, 18:40 | “The business cycle returning will melt faces off Bitcoin bears https://t.co/hOsAlxp9MD” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $75,709 | 30d | $59,420 | -21.5% | incorrect |
| 25 May 2026, 17:19 | “There are still decent arguments to be made, today, that the bottom is in ($60k) AND that we still have one leg lower. Broadly it can almost be called a coin flip. What pushes me MORE towards a return to upward Bitcoin movements are a handful of economic signals that don't seem to be getting priced in yet: - Iran conflict resolution - Global bank lending becoming easier - Tariff inflation effects fading - Fiscal policy clearly expanding - M2 acceleration - More” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 30d | — | — | unscored |
