Prediction evidence

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Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

Here is your Bitcoin Bear Market breakdown: an at-a-glance characterization of every bear market, color-coded across each type of chart, including • Max drawdown % vs. duration • Bear markets highlighted on full price history • Trajectories from each previous peak - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - At the moment, this Bear looks more like the mini-2019-2020 Bear, where we plunged due to the COVID scare toward the end. While we most likely won't see anything like the 2011 Bear again due to limited liquidity, I think there is a lot more room for the current Bear to play out in the space BETWEEN the green, orange and purple bears and the red (mini) bear. The market structure is always evolving (and has in fact meaningfully evolved since 2021; Bitcoin has transformed from an isolated retail speculation into a highly institutionalized macro asset) and the trend, even if small, is toward shallower drawdowns.