Loading profile…
@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #31 (Top 35%) · All time · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
38
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
63.2%
24 correct / 14 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.0%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+1.4%“Speaking of crazy Bitcoin signals... Copper/gold ratio has definitely made a positive turn - having just crossed its 1000-day SMA - and it would suggest a bull may be coming sooner than everyone expects a la 4-year magic. Be prepared. https://t.co/f3FPkX9VGD”
Worst call
-1.5%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
155 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sept 2026, 23:33 | “Comparing gold, Bitcoin and the S&P500, which has the record for the longest stretch underwater (price sitting below its all-time high)?🤔 - - - This kind of blew my mind. If you take a look at depth and breadth of drawdowns for each, Bitcoin obviously takes the prize for depth 🟠 But, it ranks 2nd in terms of time spent underwater - a record of 1,175 days (~3.2 years), compared to 🔵 S&P's 744 days (~2 years), and 🟡 gold's 3,256 days (~8.9 years) Gold fell less than HALF as far as Bitcoin, and took almost 3x longer to recover from it. I'll take the violent drawdown that ends over the shallow one that just sits there, especially as Bitcoin's path seems to be fairly predictable.” |
Think your calls are better?
Get ranked on the same rules, or challenge @sminston_with head to head.
All time · 4h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| — |
| 4h |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 24 Sept 2026, 02:29 | “"I'm still bullish long term. I might even buy back in lower some day." https://t.co/rHsi0ESIqv” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 23 Sept 2026, 20:20 | “And yes this is a home grown Smitty signal. Find it and track it at my site: https://t.co/NdNGzc6cxU” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 23 Sept 2026, 20:19 | “Bitcoin's 200-day rolling 99th price percentile (not power law) just ticked up for the first time in over 120 days. 9/10 times this means continued moves upward. BULLISH. Been waiting for that arrow to appear 🔥 https://t.co/hHItsNw3VN” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $84,358 | 4h | $84,424 | +0.1% | correct |
| 23 Sept 2026, 16:18 | “@Sykodelic_ Definitely possible. Had a good gut check last cycle around https://t.co/ZKLzwCc9LS” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 21 Sept 2026, 16:29 | “Bitcoin launched RIGHT out of that Support Rainbow, the key bands I've been watching during the bottom formation of the bear market 🌈 Now: BTC = $85,775 Quantile = 15% The bull energy is surging - whatever model(s) you subscribe to, consensus is growing that we're past the bottom.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 21 Sept 2026, 15:42 | “Like I said many times earlier this year - never trust a 'cloud' with a sample size of only 3-4. Bitcoin is about to break-even for the year (then go HIGHER), where according to Ben's mid-term cloud, we should be in the red by almost -50%. https://t.co/aieOOtupJC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:54 | “You're in the perfect zone- bullish structure, yet still highly undervalued $BTC” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $86,062 | 4h | $86,053 | -0.0% | incorrect |
| 21 Sept 2026, 14:22 | “We're in the process of reverting to Bitcoin's nominal price path a la power law. - - - Turns out it dramatically affects the standard "15% rule." Fidelity and Dave Ramsey both say to save 15% of every paycheck from age 25 and you'll retire fine at 65. With Bitcoin, it's only 2.7% 👀 - - - I ran the numbers as if saving ONLY in Bitcoin (power law growth) instead of an index fund at 10%/yr growth. The share of pay that lands on the SAME retirement nest egg by the SAME age: Age 35....6.1% of the paycheck Age 45....3.7% of the paycheck Age 55....2.9% of the paycheck Age 65....2.7% of the paycheck Again - each 5-year marker is a hypothetical 'retirement year' depending on the existing nest egg or income vs expenses for an individual. 15% vs 2.7% for a full standard career. Bitcoin needs less than a fifth of the paycheck. Imagine as a young guy, early in your career, only needing to sock away $225/month vs $1,250/month? Life changing.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 19 Sept 2026, 02:01 | “https://t.co/NdNGzc6cxU” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 18 Sept 2026, 15:49 | “Bitcoin looking like it's ready to get up off the [Decay Channel] floor. https://t.co/i3qKJJ7LRH” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,655 | 4h | $81,292 | +0.8% | correct |
| 18 Sept 2026, 02:41 | “I think we'll be in awe of how much the next 15 years of Bitcoin price will resemble the last 15, fractally https://t.co/LxtFRLZqv2” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Sept 2026, 16:13 | “@SatoshiFlipper How many signs do they need Flip?? https://t.co/aO5aUV8387” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 16 Sept 2026, 01:37 | “Indeed, with a chasm between price possibilities, that is the question. Clearly one is pointing to one HELL of an optimistic promised land for Bitcoiners on relatively short time horizon, while the other seems much more modest by comparison. Maybe we should compare methods. 🧐 Here's how J3 got to O6: They took Bitcoin's 9 calendar-year returns from 2014 to 2022, sorted them, and took the middle one. That's 2021's return, +59.7%. Round it to 60%, compound it forever from a starting level of $489 in Dec 2014, and you've got the model. (That's the whole thing. One number from one year 😳) - - - Two problems with that, people. 1. You can't compound a median. Over that same 2014-2022 window Bitcoin actually compounded at ~40% a year, NOT 60% (their own CAGR figure is 39.9%). The 60% line only "fits" because the $489 anchor sits 54% ABOVE the actual Dec 2014 price of $318. 2. The median isn't stable either. Run the same median with a different end year and it goes 34% (2018), 94% (2020), 60% (2022), 94% (2024), 77% (2025). The "cycle-proof" number moves as much as the CAGR they were trying to escape - - - To illustrate, take a look at this chart of rolling CAGRs. Bitcoin's realized 4-year growth rate has been FALLING the entire time (sorry guys, it's a fact): 2015: ~200% 2018: 84% 2022: 45% 2025: 17% The power law expects exactly that - growth of roughly 5.6 divided by Bitcoin's age in years, so ~39% today and ~20% by 2040. The exponent hasn't budged since 2018 while the growth rate halved twice. O6 draws a flat line at 60% through all of that and calls it conservative. That's why in the main post's chart, it goes up and right forever - it's a true exponential, and we know this is unsustainable. Of course, on their site they cite Weimar Germany as precedent. But are they really implying they know when a runaway effect will be occurring in time? How could anyone know? I'll take the curve that's been bending the same way for 15 years, and not a nice-sounding and briefly (no longer) nice-fitting, arbitrary straight line forever.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 15 Sept 2026, 20:00 | “Zoom out, fellow Bitcoiners. Bitcoin isn't about short-term this or that. Clarity would have, at best, changed the short term profile. As you change your time preference, the less the structure changes. Lots higher to go.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
