Prediction evidence

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Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

Indeed, with a chasm between price possibilities, that is the question. Clearly one is pointing to one HELL of an optimistic promised land for Bitcoiners on relatively short time horizon, while the other seems much more modest by comparison. Maybe we should compare methods. 🧐 Here's how J3 got to O6: They took Bitcoin's 9 calendar-year returns from 2014 to 2022, sorted them, and took the middle one. That's 2021's return, +59.7%. Round it to 60%, compound it forever from a starting level of $489 in Dec 2014, and you've got the model. (That's the whole thing. One number from one year 😳) - - - Two problems with that, people. 1. You can't compound a median. Over that same 2014-2022 window Bitcoin actually compounded at ~40% a year, NOT 60% (their own CAGR figure is 39.9%). The 60% line only "fits" because the $489 anchor sits 54% ABOVE the actual Dec 2014 price of $318. 2. The median isn't stable either. Run the same median with a different end year and it goes 34% (2018), 94% (2020), 60% (2022), 94% (2024), 77% (2025). The "cycle-proof" number moves as much as the CAGR they were trying to escape - - - To illustrate, take a look at this chart of rolling CAGRs. Bitcoin's realized 4-year growth rate has been FALLING the entire time (sorry guys, it's a fact): 2015: ~200% 2018: 84% 2022: 45% 2025: 17% The power law expects exactly that - growth of roughly 5.6 divided by Bitcoin's age in years, so ~39% today and ~20% by 2040. The exponent hasn't budged since 2018 while the growth rate halved twice. O6 draws a flat line at 60% through all of that and calls it conservative. That's why in the main post's chart, it goes up and right forever - it's a true exponential, and we know this is unsustainable. Of course, on their site they cite Weimar Germany as precedent. But are they really implying they know when a runaway effect will be occurring in time? How could anyone know? I'll take the curve that's been bending the same way for 15 years, and not a nice-sounding and briefly (no longer) nice-fitting, arbitrary straight line forever.