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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
21
Top 79% · #17 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
44.4%
4 correct / 5 incorrect · 14 neutral
Avg return / call
-0.68%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-15.5%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.89%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (39) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 43.8% | 36 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −42.0% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.89% | 33 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
14 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“i feel like if they're going to really kill bitcoin today is the day”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 55.6% |
45 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.17 | 18 | 25% |
All time · stated
“@BittexXBT the guaranteed free saturday short”
“would make sense if bitcoin never ticks green ever again after that”
“with that being said, super clear bitcoin might never be under 80k again after it breaks again good luck”
“seeing this chart on the feed at resistance is not ideal https://t.co/ZfRxeIYLlm”
“bitcoin is about to start printing green candles nobody thought was possible anymore https://t.co/0cziXuxG6F”
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“but absolutely zero chance we go up, it is impossible, zero. no way. because of “reasons””
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”
“bitcoin is the only trump asset down from where he started shilling. saylor capitulating into americas buys would make a poetic bottom https://t.co/tTO1mnvZjD”
“LIVE: Bitcoin To ZERO!!! Quantum IPO Is CRAZY! Can Trump Save Us?! SpaceX! AAAAAAA JOIN on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/KErnKZ7wiM”
“when saylor doesn't buy 100mm of bitcoin every hour it goes down in a straight line”
“raging bull market in the few coins that actually matter. flows consolidate. bitcoin staircases higher. saylor sells and nothing happens. the rest of the trash continues to be trash. btc dominance down only. why not”