Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,714 at 15 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,982 at 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
3. r = 77981.89 / 78714.04 − 1 = -0.93%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.93% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology