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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
89
Top 11% · #3 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
63.6%
7 correct / 4 incorrect · 12 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.35%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+8.0%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.33%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (80) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 62.6% | 85 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.33% | 79 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
12 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@BittexXBT the guaranteed free saturday short”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 63.0% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.40 | 91 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“would make sense if bitcoin never ticks green ever again after that”
“seeing this chart on the feed at resistance is not ideal https://t.co/ZfRxeIYLlm”
“@amitisinvesting hood as leveraged btc (but only to the upside)”
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”
“best way to express this is micron calls”
“LIVE: Bitcoin To ZERO!!! Quantum IPO Is CRAZY! Can Trump Save Us?! SpaceX! AAAAAAA JOIN on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/KErnKZ7wiM”
“the entire bitcoin narrative has pretty much unraveled”
“we should all just long bitcoin for the bit why not”
“when saylor doesn't buy 100mm of bitcoin every hour it goes down in a straight line”
“raging bull market in the few coins that actually matter. flows consolidate. bitcoin staircases higher. saylor sells and nothing happens. the rest of the trash continues to be trash. btc dominance down only. why not”