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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
80
Top 21% · #5 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
26
0 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
64.3%
9 correct / 5 incorrect · 12 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.11%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+3.0%
Equal stake on all 26 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.09%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (67) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 8% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 63.4% | 91 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −2.1% | 94 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.09% | 55 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
12 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@TheBTCTherapist Just the usual crypto pump and dump. Look at $DOGE and you’ll know where it ends.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 59.3% |
48 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.10 | 55 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“@bitcoin_dawg How can anyone not be bullish on Bitcoin?!”
“The fiat system is failing. Their only job is to convince you everything is fine. It’s not. It can’t be fixed. By the time everyone sees it and buys Bitcoin, BTC will be insanely expensive. Buy bitcoin:native today.”
“@Dannyseabird It was foretold.”
“It’s far more probable that nothing happens because no one cares about BIP110 and you were misled by a few. It’s far more likely that the 110 chain forks off and 1) the first block is invalidated by F2Pool or 2) the hashrate behind it shuts off within the first 24 hrs because they can’t bear the losses. Then everyone moves on with their lives because now they have learned firsthand how Bitcoin works.”
“Just a reminder that aside from capital flowing out to AI, there’s absolutely no structural reason for #Bitcoin to be down here. It’s just a self-fulfilling fear induced temporary bear market. Plan accordingly.”
“@BTCTimescom @Strive @_ALCPB I remain bullish.”
“Strategy didn't buy Bitcoin for a week and then announced they would sell some Bitcoin, and now we're going higher. https://t.co/crMZaVIWa6”
“US debt will hit 1 QUADRILLION dollars by 2070. That's 1,000 trillion dollars. Growing at 7.6% per year, that's $87,685 added every second. Interest alone is now $981 billion per year. #Bitcoin is undervalued.”
“Bitcoin is so cheap right now. It won’t last.”
“You can still buy 34k Bitcoin for just a couple billion fiat dollars. Early. https://t.co/JlGbkYuCmV”
“@chamath @theallinpod You’re right. Better sell all your Bitcoin ASAP.”