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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 6 more calls to rank
Scored calls
9
1 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
25.0%
1 correct / 3 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg return / call
-2.86%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-25.8%
Equal stake on all 9 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-2.71%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (25) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 22% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 27.7% | 9 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −27.8% | 56 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -2.71% | 22 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
17 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$85k bitcoin .. clear skies ahead Interactive chart and data (100% free): https://t.co/H7ICfIauUt https://t.co/clFYH09gXq https://t.co/3vT6l5i2MO”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 53.8% |
42 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.44 | 13 | 25% |
90 days · stated
“@Dirindin533 @BlockHorizonIO Bitcoin is indeed far off any model right now (e.g. also far below powerlaw). IMO it does not mean all these models are "broken" or "not working", it does mean that bitcoin is extremely undervalued.”
“@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwM”
“BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price: • Realized price: $53K • 155-day realized: $72K • 2-year realized: $86K A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup. https://t.co/CoyyEcj9eY”
“Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k? Look at the October column. Uptober is loading.🎃📈 https://t.co/ltCDf9TaXD”
“@chewchewtrade Up indeed https://t.co/yvKxlCeVRk”
“@teslageordie Yes, I already called the end of the bear market in this Sep 1 tweet (no guarantees of course, just my opinion): https://t.co/h3FjseWyob”
“Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k). Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) 🚀 Interactive chart: https://t.co/OrlNcbTbZf https://t.co/ok7HnDVcL7”
“Bitcoin closed August at $78,571 - Above 200 week MA $65k - Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k - All realized prices are increasing again - Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%) - Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41) IMO the bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here. https://t.co/h5IcFoBJG6”
“@seth_fin Yes that is a green dot !🟢 https://t.co/XLXf6rp0Tx”
“@bitharington Indeed, btc did not go below realized price this bear. I was wrong because I thought it would, based on last 3 bear markets. So IMO bitcoin now tracks a scenario that we discussed before: "bull has been weak so bear might be shallow" https://t.co/2fDKk3AwLx”
“@MarcusBurelius Haha bitcoin regaining S2F (250k-1m range) .. this halving cycle .. would be max pain!”
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”