Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,414 at 21 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 30 days horizon, $83,291 at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
3. r = 83291.32 / 84413.81 − 1 = -1.3%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology