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Published 1 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC
PlanB
@100trillionUSD
Quoting · 7 May 2024, 11:04 UTC · context given to the AI
Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of $55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<$4k when prediction was made. Refit of S2F with new data (below) shows similar parameters & results: $0.5m 2024-2028 and $4m 2028-2032 https://t.co/fV4EM9DOX5In reply to · 1 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC · context given to the AI
@100trillionUSD @BlockHorizonIO Hi PlanB, chart says S2F refitted (466k). Refitted as per when/which data?@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwMView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
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