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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #47 (Top 63%) · 90 days · 1 hour horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
27
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
44.4%
12 correct / 15 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
-0.0%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.1%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+0.6%“Strong reversal in % long-term holder supply in loss From a 45.4% peak to 34.4% today, from this past week's rally. NAIL IN THE COFFIN, BEARS? 🔨🐻🔨🐻🔨 - - - Evidence mounting that we are indeed past the Bitcoin cycle low. https://t.co/QBVHszR2dA”
Worst call
-1.8%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
12 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026, 20:46 | “I agree with @saifedean. NGU or NGD. Only one can get this thing adopted at scale. Both its hard-to-control properties AND its tendency to vastly outrun inflation are necessary for more people to hold it, sustainably so. Neither is sufficient on its own. And you're still pretty early.” |
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90 days · 1h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $74,724 |
| 1h |
| $74,850 |
| +0.2% |
| correct |
| 31 Oct 2026, 15:38 | “The last time Bitcoin closed at HALF today's price was 11/30/23 - 1,065 days ago 🤯 At each past bear market low, the look-back was: 2011: 216 days 2015: 540 days 2018: 587 days 2022: 925 days - - - June's low ($58,525) sat 985 days from half, further back than at ANY prior bottom. Even at that low, a buyer from 10/19/23 was still up 2x. Not to mention - according this metric, looks pretty clear we're past the bottom, in case you needed another signal for this. We've got much higher to go.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,424 | 1h | $77,455 | +0.0% | correct |
| 20 Oct 2026, 20:57 | “Classic Log-Log Decay Channel Model. Bitcoin $1 Million just really isn't that far off. https://t.co/aQwig2FAGv” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,741 | 1h | $82,876 | +0.2% | correct |
| 17 Oct 2026, 02:33 | “In 2022, after the Bitcoin bear reversal, we had the first golden cross of the 'bear' market. About 2 months later, price jumped again by ~30%. If this repeats, the price will get above $100k. About a month left to go. https://t.co/ymulAjQ84i” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,290 | 1h | $81,482 | +0.2% | correct |
| 13 Oct 2026, 03:02 | “I think Bitcoin is gonna pump any day now.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,787 | 1h | $83,312 | +0.6% | correct |
| 18 Sept 2026, 15:49 | “Bitcoin looking like it's ready to get up off the [Decay Channel] floor. https://t.co/i3qKJJ7LRH” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $80,655 | 1h | $80,829 | +0.2% | correct |
| 10 Sept 2026, 16:26 | “Dollar Index (DXY) 252d Z-score has been down-trending since June, and just broke negative 👀 Short/med-term risk-on returning Bullish for Bitcoin/Crypto https://t.co/N9HeueBGQi” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,881 | 1h | $77,291 | +0.5% | correct |
| 1 Sept 2026, 04:23 | “@AshCrypto Extremely bullish for Bitcoin https://t.co/AZnRRxZqis” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $78,779 | 1h | $78,787 | +0.0% | correct |
| 25 Aug 2026, 21:02 | “Strong reversal in % long-term holder supply in loss From a 45.4% peak to 34.4% today, from this past week's rally. NAIL IN THE COFFIN, BEARS? 🔨🐻🔨🐻🔨 - - - Evidence mounting that we are indeed past the Bitcoin cycle low. https://t.co/QBVHszR2dA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $78,200 | 1h | $78,706 | +0.6% | correct |
| 18 Aug 2026, 22:24 | “Here's the buffer that absorbed four years of quantitative tightening. The reverse repo facility peaked at $2.554 TRILLION on the last day of 2022. Today it holds $255 million. One hundredth of one percent of the peak! 🤯 Money parked overnight at the Fed could drain away without ever touching bank reserves, and all $2.5 trillion of it did exactly that. 📉 Now look at the past year: Fed assets: +$116B Treasury cash account: +$460B Reverse repo: -$56B The Fed added liquidity, and the Treasury took back almost four times as much. There's nothing left to cushion the next one. 💡Now think of the last disappointing 'dampened' Bitcoin 'bull run': The 2023–2025 (pseudo) bull run was a cycle run on flat liquidity. Not contracting; the buffer prevented that. But not expanding either. Compare that to 2020–2021, where net liquidity went vertical and so did Bitcoin. It's making more sense now. A pseudo-bull run unsupported by macro, by Fed policy, by sentiment - only running of the ETF launches and possible halving narrative. But Bitcoin will have another proper bull run, yet.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $64,534 | 1h | $64,690 | +0.2% | correct |
| 16 Aug 2026, 15:48 | “Since 2013, only EIGHT days have seen Bitcoin cheaper than today relative to its 5th percentile power law line. That is 0.16% of every daily close in that span, and all eight of them came this year. Seven were ONE consecutive week, June 25 to July 1. The eighth was Friday. - - - Today Bitcoin sits at 0.835x of that line. From 2013 through 2025 it never once got below 0.848x - not at the 2022 bottom, not anywhere. Bottom or not... When something sits in the cheapest fifth of one percent of its price history, it's a time you will remember - for better or worse - when we are climbing the next bull.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,058 | 1h | $63,216 | +0.3% | correct |
| 12 Aug 2026, 19:25 | “Bitcoin MVRV Z-score = 0.4 Lotta upside here, folks. ⤴️ https://t.co/xYI1v2hzom” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,316 | 1h | $63,436 | +0.2% | correct |
