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@scottmelker · The Wolf Of All Streets | The Daily Wolf On @YahooFinance | Media Host | Author | Markets | Hot Takes | Bitcoin | Married up to @emimelker ALL CAPS = news team
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 14 more calls to rank
Scored calls
1
1 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
—
0 correct / 0 incorrect · 1 neutral
Avg return / call
-1.92%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-1.9%
Equal stake on all 1 calls resolved in the last 7 days
Mean alpha
-1.92%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (49) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | — | 56 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 39 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.92% | 72 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
Not enough history in this window for a trend.
7 days · stated
3 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Dave on his Bitcoin volatility thesis "My thesis is Bitcoin is an option on its own adoption. It will therefore trade pretty much the same as tech companies that are at the leading edge that trade on a power law adoption." "If Bitcoin trades as an option, then it's gonna be much more volatile. People expect levels of returns that are very different than they do for mature assets." "Andy made a point, which is very reasonable. Except it's wrong. Until Bitcoin trades like gold in terms of volatility and tracks inflation, people aren't gonna invest in it like gold." "It's a chicken and egg problem. Bitcoin won't trade like gold unless it's trading at higher prices at a much higher market cap relative to gold. So don't expect it to trade that way until it gets there." "In order to get there, it has to be dramatically more volatile. Not gonna 10x with less volatility. That's literally impossible."”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 14.3% |
22 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.37 | 44 | 25% |
“$BTC may fall with markets in the short term, but dollar debasement and Treasury intervention in the bond market make the long-term case "Everybody knows that inflation is bad. The cost of the things that you buy has gone up and it continues to go up." "Does it really matter to you if CPI, PPI, PCE are 2 or 2.5 or 3.4 or 3.1, or what the data inputs are? Or does it matter to you your steak costs more today than it did a month ago." "Yes, in the very short term, Bitcoin may move down with the rest of the markets, which are obviously all dumping today on this news." "But what's more important is the very phenomenon behind it. We know that eventually the government is going to have to be irresponsible and print more money. We know that the Treasury is intervening in the bond market, that is the actual long-term case for Bitcoin." "All of these fabricated news headlines and numbers are actually the reason that you should buy and hold Bitcoin in the long term." "I'm old enough to remember last week when we were talking about the cooked numbers that meant that they could cut rates. Now we get to talk about the slightly cooked numbers that are probably not as bad as they seem that could make them continue to raise rates."”
“People want Fed cuts for a pump in risk assets, but the Fed only cuts when something breaks "But what we really have right now is the strange contradiction with markets, right? People want to see the Fed cut, because a Fed cut means that risk assets will go up, because it means there's more liquidity." "But the Fed only cuts when something's broken, right? So you're effectively cheering for something to break in the economy so that the Fed can cut so that your asset can go up. And it's like living in the Upside Down in Stranger Things. None of it makes much sense." "Once again, yes, Bitcoin went down today because of things that were happening in the macro, sort of. But it has risen if you zoom out, and it is on an epic rally, its best third quarter in many years, and probably entering into a new bull market." "So we're gonna see what the Fed does. We'll see what oil does. But I can tell you that no matter what the Fed does and oil does, the bond market is not believing any of them."”