Prediction evidence

People want Fed cuts for a pump in risk assets, but the Fed only cuts when something breaks "But what we really have right now is the strange contradiction with markets, right? People want to see the Fed cut, because a Fed cut means that risk assets will go up, because it means there's more liquidity." "But the Fed only cuts when something's broken, right? So you're effectively cheering for something to break in the economy so that the Fed can cut so that your asset can go up. And it's like living in the Upside Down in Stranger Things. None of it makes much sense." "Once again, yes, Bitcoin went down today because of things that were happening in the macro, sort of. But it has risen if you zoom out, and it is on an epic rally, its best third quarter in many years, and probably entering into a new bull market." "So we're gonna see what the Fed does. We'll see what oil does. But I can tell you that no matter what the Fed does and oil does, the bond market is not believing any of them."