Prediction evidence

Dave on his Bitcoin volatility thesis "My thesis is Bitcoin is an option on its own adoption. It will therefore trade pretty much the same as tech companies that are at the leading edge that trade on a power law adoption." "If Bitcoin trades as an option, then it's gonna be much more volatile. People expect levels of returns that are very different than they do for mature assets." "Andy made a point, which is very reasonable. Except it's wrong. Until Bitcoin trades like gold in terms of volatility and tracks inflation, people aren't gonna invest in it like gold." "It's a chicken and egg problem. Bitcoin won't trade like gold unless it's trading at higher prices at a much higher market cap relative to gold. So don't expect it to trade that way until it gets there." "In order to get there, it has to be dramatically more volatile. Not gonna 10x with less volatility. That's literally impossible."