The Wolf Of All Streets

“People want Fed cuts for a pump in risk assets, but the Fed only cuts when something breaks "But what we really have right now is the strange contradiction with markets, right? People want to see the Fed cut, because a Fed cut means that risk assets will go up, because it means there's more liquidity." "But the Fed only cuts when something's broken, right? So you're effectively cheering for something to break in the economy so that the Fed can cut so that your asset can go up. And it's like living in the Upside Down in Stranger Things. None of it makes much sense." "Once again, yes, Bitcoin went down today because of things that were happening in the macro, sort of. But it has risen if you zoom out, and it is on an epic rally, its best third quarter in many years, and probably entering into a new bull market." "So we're gonna see what the Fed does. We'll see what oil does. But I can tell you that no matter what the Fed does and oil does, the bond market is not believing any of them."”

“The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs. But the internals are weak. As of Wednesday, 257 of the 500 stocks in the index were trading below their 200-day moving averages. That’s more than half the index underwater on a widely watched long-term momentum measure. Breadth is bearish. Now look at crypto. Of the top 100 tokens by market cap, 88, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Most of those same coins are also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages. That’s a clean, bullish configuration across the board. And here’s the part that stands out: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL and the majority of the rest are still well below their all-time highs. They look relatively inexpensive compared with equities that are already pricing in a lot of good news. Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag. Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup. The data doesn’t lie.”

“The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs. But the internals are weak. As of Wednesday, 257 of the 500 stocks in the index were trading below their 200-day moving averages. That’s more than half the index underwater on a widely watched long-term momentum measure. Breadth is bearish. Now look at crypto. Of the top 100 tokens by market cap, 88, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Most of those same coins are also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages. That’s a clean, bullish configuration across the board. And here’s the part that stands out: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL and the majority of the rest are still well below their all-time highs. They look relatively inexpensive compared with equities that are already pricing in a lot of good news. Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag. Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup. The data doesn’t lie.”

“The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs. But the internals are weak. As of Wednesday, 257 of the 500 stocks in the index were trading below their 200-day moving averages. That’s more than half the index underwater on a widely watched long-term momentum measure. Breadth is bearish. Now look at crypto. Of the top 100 tokens by market cap, 88, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Most of those same coins are also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages. That’s a clean, bullish configuration across the board. And here’s the part that stands out: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL and the majority of the rest are still well below their all-time highs. They look relatively inexpensive compared with equities that are already pricing in a lot of good news. Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag. Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup. The data doesn’t lie.”

“Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $731M, the largest single inflow day since January "Usually when we're talking about what's signal and what's noise we don't talk too deeply about the daily ETF inflows and outflows because it generally gets washed away in the news cycle, but when you have the largest day here in September, basically of the entire year since January, it's worth noting almost a billion dollars in inflows into the Bitcoin spot ETFs." "IBIT, of course, from BlackRock had 454 million of those, but six other funds also had inflows." "August had approximately $3.5 billion in inflows, strongest month since September 2025, and that was right before the October peak of the entire market. So this is a real trend that started in August when Bitcoin started to move up towards the end of the month." "It was the bond market that sparked this, the fact that Treasury announced that they were going to double their buybacks, that was the catalyst. But now we're weeks removed from that happening and prices are still high and inflows are still increasing, which means that there's actually an institutional, and retail bid underlying this price move, giving a lot more confidence that this is strong and that it could potentially be a lasting move."”

“Bitcoin spent a historically long stretch in fear, and one week of greed is not the top "Crypto greed gauge hits highest since just before October's nineteen billion wipeout. I am seeing this narrative everywhere and it drives me absolutely nuts." "Bitcoin spent a historically long period in fear. If you were looking at the sentiment index it was fear, slight spikes out, extreme fear, for months at a time, something that had never happened before. We finally exit fear and get into greed for the first time, and you already have the crypto media talking about the October nineteen billion dollar wipeout and how this is exactly the same." "Take a look back at the crypto fear and greed index then, and you will notice we were in a raging bull market with Bitcoin going all the way up to one hundred twenty six thousand. Much like how we have been in fear here, we had a long sustained period of greed and extreme greed." "We just got there. This is just the beginning of a sentiment shift, and it is disingenuous to compare it to the top of the entire bull market. Much like RSI can stay overbought for a very long time when things get going, so can greed sentiment remain elevated. I think this is a bullish narrative and not a bearish narrative."”

“The same signals that marked the bottom are now showing up as signs of a local top "A lot of the signals we saw that were very key signs of a bottom are now showing up as key signs of a local top. I do not think this move is over, I'm just getting excited to hopefully buy some dips as price drops here. Bitcoin has a tendency not to give you the dips you want, but that's what I'm looking for" "Those signals are overbought RSI now. We had almost historically high RSI on the daily chart. We're seeing bearish divergence with overbought RSI on lower timeframes, meaning strength abating even as price continued up" "And we're at key levels of resistance. The 50 moving average on the weekly chart, we basically went right up to it and got rejected. That's the kind of area you'd be looking for price to retrace below, to gather up strength to go back above"”

“Bitcoin needs to hold above around $82,800 to break the bearish structure "I do believe we are likely near a bottom. All the signals I've been telling you about for months were there, and now we've passed some fundamental levels that I think are important" "That said, for the technical analysts out there, Bitcoin needs to get above around $82,800 and hold there to make a new higher high and abolish the bearish market structure that still exists" "If I had a gun to my head, I would imagine we see some sort of retracement to some degree. Let RSI cool off, let the chart cool off a bit, maybe go back and test the low 70s or high 60s, get people thinking we're in a bear market again, and then gain fuel for that next rally" "It's nice not to be trading sideways at $64,000 indefinitely. It seems Bitcoin finally produced the perfect bottom signal, which was everyone stopped caring. Perfect time based capitulation"”

“I am not saying that Bitcoin is starting it's next move, although it very well could be. I am saying that I've been very publicly making the case for a potential bottom since February and I still think odds are in favor of that arugment.”

“The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin Treasury Companies “One thing I got right and got right early in the face of extreme pushback was that Bitcoin treasury companies were a horrible idea, the next bubble" “They’d take a defunct pharmaceutical company, turn it into a Bitcoin treasury, the stock goes up, buy a bunch of Bitcoin at the top, with no plan to ever do it again. The premium collapsed and they all top-blasted” “This was the dumbest thing I’d seen in a long time and I screamed about it repeatedly. I got pitched to invest and didn’t because it was obviously dumb””