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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
42
Top 58% · #11 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
40.0%
2 correct / 3 incorrect · 10 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
-0.48%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
-7.2%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.47%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (49) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 7% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 40.1% | 41 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −37.8% | 63 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.47% | 47 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
26 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“bitcoin is about to start printing green candles nobody thought was possible anymore https://t.co/0cziXuxG6F”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 84.6% |
56 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.08 | 44 | 25% |
90 days · 7d
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“MARKET OPEN: Crypto RETURNS to a RAGING BULL MARKET, BITCOIN is BACK, Memory Bros Are BUYING OUR COINS Join on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/1bZQftgPUt”
“@amitisinvesting hood as leveraged btc (but only to the upside)”
“buy the dip short the vix and fuck bitcoin guys in shambles”
“time for the guaranteed bitcoin leg down < 50k that’s guaranteed to happen for absolutely no reason”
“but absolutely zero chance we go up, it is impossible, zero. no way. because of “reasons””
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”
“"The two crushing narratives for BTC were stocks going down and Saylor selling. Both of those are happening at the same time and and we're going up." https://t.co/LkvDLwbGUI”