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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
75
Top 25% · #5 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
5 correct / 4 incorrect · 6 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.16%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+2.4%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
+0.18%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 7% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 58.1% | 69 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 91 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.18% | 56 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@ByzGeneral bitcoin should go up now”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 84.6% |
56 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.20 | 78 | 25% |
90 days · 4h
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“buy the dip short the vix and fuck bitcoin guys in shambles”
“time for the guaranteed bitcoin leg down < 50k that’s guaranteed to happen for absolutely no reason”