K A L E O

“The fact so many people have been brainwashed to believe the success of Bitcoin is dependent on one man and one company is what's beyond stupid. I believe Strategy will continue to prioritize paying STRC dividends. They don't really have much of a choice. The issue is - they're forced to either sell equity (aka MSTR ATM) or sell Bitcoin to fund those payments + debt obligations in the next couple of years. With the recent Bitcoin purchases + cash raises, they've signaled their preferred route is diluting MSTR shareholders. And unfortunately there most likely will be a tethered selloff at some point, but that doesn't mean either Strategy or Bitcoin will die. Strategy will survive, but their cash raising vehicle will be impaired as they deal with rebuilding trust. Bitcoin will bounce back and print new highs like it always has. So yes, there easily can be a scenario where MSTR is significantly outperformed by BTC.”

“$STRC is still having a hard time trying to reclaim its $100 peg target despite Saylor showing he's willing to dilute $MSTR to pay out the dividends. The longer this trends lower, the higher the obligations Strategy has as it hikes yield rates to try and incentivize restoring the peg. It also dissolves what was the primary cash vehicle for Strategy to purchase more Bitcoin.”

“brother - if you read my posts, I'm still saying now is a good time to buy. they're more cautionary to try and encourage nobody to get too greedy and overleverage themselves here from a time perspective I fully believe we're near the lows wouldn't mind being wrong at all and for price to just go up only forever, but still think it's way safer to stack and sit on high conviction plays now rather than doing anything stupid because people think there's no way possible BTC can dip below $60K again”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC I'm still crazy enough to think there's a decent chance the market sees one more leg down prior to seeing a true bottom for the cycle. ~900 days post halving is in line with what we've seen the last several bear markets. Like I said yesterday though, that doesn't mean now isn't a good time to stack more BTC. If you would've bought anywhere in the months surrounding the lows any of the last bear markets, you'd thank yourself in the next 12-36 months.”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC $40K before $100K. Only a few months away from what we've seen as the traditional four year cycle's bottom post halving. Still believe now is a good time to be stacking BTC if you're patient enough. (e.g. if you were stacking anywhere in the $20K-$30K range last cycle, you'd be pretty damn happy with those buys a couple years later even though the price dipped as low as $16K)”

“Honestly surprised it's not higher. I'm as bullish if not more than anyone else on Bitcoin - but that doesn't mean we can't see one more dip before we rip. Four year cycle has the lows landing sometime in the next few months then up only. https://t.co/yGUru4mRJ4”

“Just a few more liquidations then up only https://t.co/kRfq9lAhPs”

“Was a huge red-flag in hindsight, but I justified it as defensible enough to the BTC Yield narrative that I wrote it off. I just think I was also so disillusioned by the growth in AI / tech / commodities, etc. over the last year it made me look for any way possible to justify my bullish bias in Bitcoin that it *had* to eventually catch up. Embarrassing to say especially with how vocally and obnoxiously bullish I've been through the majority of the last 8 months of bleeding in the market. Still incredibly bullish on the industry and think it recovers stronger from this mess, because despite the post 2020 btc maximalists on the timeline, Bitcoin != MSTR, and it's success isn't dependent on one arrogant deranged figurehead at the top.”

“Great thread from one year ago that’s more relevant than ever today. https://t.co/pPSjFNUahx”

“I was wrong for way longer than I should have been. Wish it wouldn’t have taken seeing obvious lies and shifting of goalposts from Saylor and Strategy to open my eyes. I’m trying to do what I can to help people open their eyes to this shit before it does get worse. Still a huge believer in Bitcoin and the industry as a whole which does make me incredibly bullish down the road, but this is a massive ponzi that inevitably needs to be deleveraged. I’d rather deal with the pain now rather than later giving it the chance to grow larger and see the fallout be even worse.”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC With the obvious risk and need for de-risking in MSTR along with Mythos dropping tomorrow - think it's likely we see a violent flush soon Just a few more liquidations then up only https://t.co/Q3zEcDijlQ https://t.co/Lu4nKLjLOo”

“If you like $STRC at $95, you'll love it at $75. https://t.co/EVbbV5xVET https://t.co/WvymNQ1qaW”

“had a similar realization last cycle right before the LUNA / UST collapse well after the BTC top (stayed bullish for far too long then as well) but also well before the lows https://t.co/mFtk117Jvt”

“fwiw - one more flush aligns incredibly well with what we've seen with timing over the last several cycles e.g. true bear market bottom sometime around ~900 days post halving... which is only a little over 100 days away https://t.co/QJv6630qDC”