Prediction evidence

Quoting · 27 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · context given to the AI

#Bitcoin / $BTC This question challenged me to think critically about what else is a "bear case". Outside of what I listed, the biggest one left on the table is cyclical performance. The last 3 bull market peaks occurred ~536 days post their respective BTC halvings. All within 13 days of that number. On the same note, the last 2 bear market bottoms occurred ~908 days post halving, both numbers within a few weeks of that number. Which brings us to where we are now, ~769 days post halving... it's a small data set to go off of, and there are plenty of other external factors that affect each cycle differently - but I still would see it as a decent counter-argument to any *short term* bullish bias I have. We're still ~4.5 months out from what would be the bottom if we were to continue to follow what's been a consistent trend (e.g. bottom in October 2026). Fwiw - if you look at the four month average price of BTC on either side of those bottoms, they were all incredible opportunities to stack more Bitcoin. So like I also said in the interview - now isn't when you want to sit back and trade leverage because you're bored. Instead, leverage your boredom and spend that time to build something great. I'd love to see a bounce at $70K like I've shared over the last several weeks - but I'm fully prepared to use any extra time the market gives me to keep working harder and stack more. Be more bullish.

In reply to · 9 Jun 2026, 15:10 UTC · context given to the AI

I'll be the first to admit how much I wanted it to work and refused to think critically about some of the cracks that could happen, but when Saylor started breaking promises and moving the goal posts it forced me to be more objective. So I spent weeks doing research to find any way possible to try and justify ways he could continue to prop this mess up, but the more time I spent digging the more I realized just how bad everything possibly *could* get... and the article walks through those findings.