K A L E O

“If you're curious, $MSTR becomes effectively worthless at $25K Bitcoin. Strategy has $22.2B of debt and preferred shares senior to the commons (not including the dividend obligations). 846,842*$25K = $21.2B + $1.1B (cash reserve) = $22.3B. That's the power of leverage! https://t.co/lwapCblkqU”

“Strategy needs to come up with $10B - $12B of cash in the next two years. They’ll dilute $MSTR as much as possible and eventually be forced to sell some $BTC to do it. https://t.co/EMtJhgu3sy”

“@Unbay4ever there's a difference between doom posting and truth posting I still believe Bitcoin rallies from this back to new all time highs but MSTR got greedy and the market inevitably will humble them”

“haha all good I laughed and honestly the sad thing is it took me much longer than it should have to wake up to the ponzi I was blinded for a long time by "Saylor is pressing the buy button on an asset I like so I like him and what they're doing" took seeing him break several lies to actually do a deep dive and realize how messed up the current structure is so as annoying as I might be on the timeline right now I'd rather hopefully wake a few more people up to the ponzi before it takes the next major leg down rather than sitting from the sidelines in silence and the dumbest argument is I've seen people try and say I'm doing this for engagement - I'd get a ton more engagement just riding Saylor's dick to zero like the rest of his cult is apparently willing to do”

“overall thesis is over the last year he got greedy and the market will eventually force his hand to sell a large chunk of Bitcoin, so it'd be healthier if it's done sooner rather than later part 2 of the thesis is he's too arrogant to do that so he'll try to extract as much as he can from MSTR holders first... which crushes the premium and turns it off as a viable spicket, so he'll be forced to sell BTC much lower which will be much more dilutive (obviously takes more BTC at lower prices to raise the same amount of $$ if you sell at higher prices) they shouldn't completely collapse barring Saylor being removed from office but they will be humbled”

“I mean I've been as vocally bullish about Bitcoin as anyone on this app, but that doesn't mean we can't see lower prices first when there's risk this size, the market tends to hunt it rather than just speculating and saying "I believe number will go higher so they'll be safe" if you look at where things actually are right now, MSTR will continue to be diluted and that'll keep happening until something changes fundamentally”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Honestly would think the odds would be way higher than 60% we see $50K before $100K. Still believe the market sees one last leg lower associated with MSTR / STRC panic before it hits a real bottom. Close from a time perspective, bit to go from a price perspective. Once again everyone will try and say Bitcoin is dead, and just like every other time it'll make a run back to new highs.”

“Man - if you knew the LUNA/UST collapse was going to happen before it happened, would you not say anything? I don’t think this will be nearly on that scale. It doesn’t have to be. The sooner Strategy sells a sizable chunk of Bitcoin ($5 - $10B), the better off they, their shareholders, and BTC will be. Bitcoin will bounce back like it always does and MSTR will continue to slowly bleed until the extreme dilution is finished and they work to regain investor trust”

“@SoggySealVA Not nearly as bad! They still have real value left that far exceeds their obligations The sooner they sell a sizable chunk of Bitcoin, the better off they (and MSTR / STRC holders) will be”

“@trader_koala Agreed Imo I think we see a real unwind up until the point the finally decide to sell a sizable amount of Bitcoin Which should make a nice low for BTC Even if it doesn’t for MSTR”

“Why? Read this: https://t.co/qv71QK6VZ4”

“You also have $6.7B of cash obligations you need to pay in the next two years. You’ve diluted MSTR so much there’s no way the debt converts. So you need to come up $10.1B+ of CASH in the next two years by either selling MSTR or selling Bitcoin. STRC is <$90 and isn’t bouncing back, so that’s not an option (and it would be a little insane to raise cash via the asset you’re paying the obligation to). The premium for the mNAV is approaching 1, so selling MSTR won’t be a viable option much longer. So the responsible thing you should do is cut your losses sooner rather than later and sell the Bitcoin now. The lower the price is that you’re forced to sell, the more BTC you’ll be forced to sell to raise the same amount of cash.”

“@HortiGold @saylor it'll be back soon enough I'm as bullish as I've ever been on Bitcoin and crypto just believe there's a fundamental issue with Strategy's strategy that needs to be addressed first”

“e.g. one man and one company don't define the success of BTC if MSTR goes down significantly, could BTC sell off for a bit as a result? sure but it'll bounce back to new highs like it always has after every time it's been declared dead meanwhile in that scenario, Strategy doesn't have to sell all of their Bitcoin - but MSTR gets diluted significantly and takes a good chunk of time to regain trust & have the ability to buy more accretively rather than being purely defensive”