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Published 19 Jun 2026, 00:11 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
In reply to · 19 Jun 2026, 00:11 UTC · context given to the AI
If you're curious, $MSTR becomes effectively worthless at $25K Bitcoin. Strategy has $22.2B of debt and preferred shares senior to the commons (not including the dividend obligations). 846,842*$25K = $21.2B + $1.1B (cash reserve) = $22.3B. That's the power of leverage! https://t.co/lwapCblkqUIt gets worse when you consider Strategy has to come up with $10B+ cash sometime in the next 12-24 months to pay their convertible debt + dividend obligations. They'd either have to sell 400K - 500K BTC at those price levels, or sell a TON of MSTR shares ATM a price that would already be in the gutter... it'll probably be some combination of both - and either one would have an incredibly dilutive effect on MSTR share holders.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63465.13 / 62949.87 − 1 = +0.82%d × r = -0.82% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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