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@CryptoHayes · Unclaimed · Rank #22 (Top 24%) · All time · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
6
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
83.3%
5 correct / 1 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.2%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.2%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
2
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
210d
15 Apr 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+0.6%“USD liquidity is recharging. Expect $BTC weakness until Fed and or Banks start growing their balance sheet. https://t.co/vC8dNMxmo2”
Worst call
-1.0%“"Same Same But Different" is an essay on why you should back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands. "Bad Gurl Yellen and Buffalo Bill Bessent are the same whether their rhetoric before taking office differed. They both suffered under the yoke of politicians who couldn’t help themselves but to spend more and more money on whatever nonsense they deemed worthy. But they both decided being the most powerful financier in all the land was worth it. And therefore, when the treasury market convulsed, they responded with clever money printing stratagem. When they manipulate the treasury market by printing money to cap yields, it creates dollar liquidity which flows into Bitcoin and crypto. I will cover two such episodes where Yellen and Bessent changed the game, and Bitcoin responded positively. The first episode was in late 2023 when Yellen issued more bills than bonds. The second episode is right now when Bessent intervened in the dollar-yen market and then upped treasury buy back notional. Bitcoin ripped off its lows after Yellen announced her money printing scheme, and I argue it will do the same after Bessent reestablished his conviction to follow in his predecessors’ footsteps and materially increase the pace of dollar liquidity creation." Read the full essay on my cryptohayes substack.”
Every token @CryptoHayes has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 2 tokens, all time.
Last called 3 Nov 2026 · 5 calls since 16 Apr 2026
3 bullish · 2 bearish
Last called 24 Oct 2026
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
13 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026, 01:16 | “USD liquidity is recharging. Expect $BTC weakness until Fed and or Banks start growing their balance sheet. https://t.co/vC8dNMxmo2” |
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All time · 4h
| BTC |
| ▼ Bearish |
| $77,154 |
| 4h |
| $76,689 |
| -0.6% |
| correct |
| 24 Oct 2026, 06:18 | “I dumped it all. The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. I think we gotta go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land. Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal … Brrrrr” | ETH | ▼ Bearish | $2,376 | 4h | $2,362 | -0.6% | correct |
| 15 Oct 2026, 04:48 | “Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 15 Oct 2026, 04:48 | “Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW” | ETH | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 25 Aug 2026, 08:12 | “"Same Same But Different" is an essay on why you should back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands. "Bad Gurl Yellen and Buffalo Bill Bessent are the same whether their rhetoric before taking office differed. They both suffered under the yoke of politicians who couldn’t help themselves but to spend more and more money on whatever nonsense they deemed worthy. But they both decided being the most powerful financier in all the land was worth it. And therefore, when the treasury market convulsed, they responded with clever money printing stratagem. When they manipulate the treasury market by printing money to cap yields, it creates dollar liquidity which flows into Bitcoin and crypto. I will cover two such episodes where Yellen and Bessent changed the game, and Bitcoin responded positively. The first episode was in late 2023 when Yellen issued more bills than bonds. The second episode is right now when Bessent intervened in the dollar-yen market and then upped treasury buy back notional. Bitcoin ripped off its lows after Yellen announced her money printing scheme, and I argue it will do the same after Bessent reestablished his conviction to follow in his predecessors’ footsteps and materially increase the pace of dollar liquidity creation." Read the full essay on my cryptohayes substack.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $79,902 | 4h | $79,071 | -1.0% | incorrect |
| 21 Aug 2026, 20:21 | “The bank of the future $ETHFI is waking up. $2 is just maths. https://t.co/PJdnH4wEl0” | $ETHFI | ▲ Bullish | $0.6155 | 4h | $0.6087 | -1.1% | incorrect |
| 11 Aug 2026, 01:06 | “My essay "Yen-quake" walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to manipulate the dollar-yen exchange rate and turn the money printer back on. "While a weak, weaker, and weakest yen propelled global asset markets higher over the past decade, like all good things for wealthy financial asset holders, it must end. The yen is the most undervalued currency globally, and it is a bone of contention for both major powers, the US and China, and critically, the ordinary Japanese voters. There are three ways to cut the yen Gordian knot, but the US Treasury and Japanese politicians prefer only one. I will explain the mechanics of each method to strengthen the yen and then conclude with why the final one is the preferred option. Then I will talk about politically how to execute the third option. Finally, which is why you read my human slop, I will detail why Bitcoin and crypto will moon as dollar liquidity surges higher. The three options: 1. The BOJ raises rates aggressively so that the dollar-yen interest rate differential, at least at the short end, evaporates. 2. The government cajoles domestic and public institutions like the GPIF to change their investment mandate to sell foreign and buy local assets. 3. [PREFERRED OPTION] The MOF repos its holdings of US treasuries to the Fed in exchange for dollars. Then sells dollars to purchase yen in the forex market. Before I get into the details, degens should ask themselves why talk about the yen strengthening now. So many folks over the previous decades proclaimed now is the time that the yen must strengthen and unwind the global carry trade. Two weeks ago, the US and Japan’s monetary mandarins carried out a joint currency manipulation, euphemistically called an intervention. Collusion and conspiracy confer different nomenclature when you are a plebe versus the state. US Treasury secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent proclaimed he wants the Fed to raise the FIMA Repo Facility’s counterparty limit so that the MOF can use its massive stash of assets to defend the yen.[4] The MOF also proclaimed that it is working hand in hand with the Americans to slam dollar-yen lower.[5] The authorities are telling us they are on board with a change in global currency relations; therefore, we must listen." Substack link to full essay on my bio.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,942 | 4h | $63,989 | +0.1% | correct |
| 5 Aug 2026, 01:01 | “"Situationship" is my $BTC bull porn essay on how the AI bubble will burst, and why the money printer will go hyper brrrr and take us back to a rip roaring bull market. "The question of internal framing is the key variable that determines whether AI is a bubble. But before we understand the bubbliciousness of AI, the better question to ask is in what kind of businesses are we investing, or in relationship terms, “What are we”? The dichotomy, at least to my Luddite brain, is the distinction between what investors believe AI CAPEX represents: is it technology or real estate? The zeitgeist is that this multi-trillion dollar build out is “technology” and must receive insane growth multiples by the market. But I believe AI CAPEX is just another boring real estate play. However, in this instance, what’s inside the data center is compute that creates silicon-based lifeforms that will aid human civilizational development in the most profound way since the railroads. The distinction between real estate and compute is important because the recently post-pubescent hedge fund bro, the bank, the private credit fund, and ultimately the government believes funding the building of a data center and power plant is like lending to Apple, instead of lending to Lehman Brothers. The bursting of the AI bubble will occur because financial intermediaries, tacitly supported by the US and Chinese governments, will over build data centers and everything that goes into providing the substrate to house chips that train AI models and conduct inference. Therefore, the AI bubble is a credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.[1]" Link to my substack and the full article on my bio.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $63,933 | 4h | $64,236 | +0.5% | correct |
| 30 Jun 2026, 22:44 | “One Dollar $SYN is within reach, tell me why I'm wrong ... https://t.co/jZXknW941t” | $SYN | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 23 Jun 2026, 20:39 | “The ticker is $CARDS degens. The thesis is solid. The price will be pamping! Yachtzee bitches 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 https://t.co/yPeEOBHBus” | $CARDS | ▲ Bullish | $0.2912 | 4h | $0.2946 | +1.2% | correct |
| 30 May 2026, 23:09 | “Are we dreaming big enough? Looking at this list of mostly dogshit coins, I think $HYPE should at a minimum overtake $SOL before this bull run is over. https://t.co/EZrZxHwNwR” | SOL | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 6 May 2026, 09:13 | “Remember the $ZEC target is 10% of $BTC's price. We got a lot of pamping to go. https://t.co/t0NXK72aok” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 16 Apr 2026, 04:19 | “Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo. However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, Bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | $74,962 | 4h | $74,646 | -0.4% | correct |
