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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Oct 2026, 06:18 UTC · fetched 26 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

Arthur Hayes

@CryptoHayes

I dumped it all. The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. I think we gotta go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land. Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal … Brrrrr

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,375 at 24 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,338 at 25 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC.
r = 2337.89 / 2375.45 − 1 = -1.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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