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Published 16 Apr 2026, 04:19 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC
Arthur Hayes
@CryptoHayes
In reply to · 16 Apr 2026, 03:43 UTC · context given to the AI
"No Trade Zone" discusses the impact on $BTC based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. https://t.co/spNEjrnPI7Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo. However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, Bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 74810 / 74964.65 − 1 = -0.21%d × r = +0.21% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutralOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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