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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 6 more calls to rank
Scored calls
9
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
25.0%
1 correct / 3 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
-0.86%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
-7.7%
Equal stake on all 9 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.88%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (33) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 22% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 29.3% | 13 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −7.9% | 72 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.88% | 44 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
7 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwM”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 46.2% |
23 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.16 | 22 | 25% |
90 days · 7d
“BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price: • Realized price: $53K • 155-day realized: $72K • 2-year realized: $86K A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup. https://t.co/CoyyEcj9eY”
“@chewchewtrade Up indeed https://t.co/yvKxlCeVRk”
“@teslageordie Yes, I already called the end of the bear market in this Sep 1 tweet (no guarantees of course, just my opinion): https://t.co/h3FjseWyob”
“@seth_fin Yes that is a green dot !🟢 https://t.co/XLXf6rp0Tx”
“@bitharington Indeed, btc did not go below realized price this bear. I was wrong because I thought it would, based on last 3 bear markets. So IMO bitcoin now tracks a scenario that we discussed before: "bull has been weak so bear might be shallow" https://t.co/2fDKk3AwLx”
“@MarcusBurelius Haha bitcoin regaining S2F (250k-1m range) .. this halving cycle .. would be max pain!”