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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 2 more calls to rank
Scored calls
13
5 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
0.0%
0 correct / 6 incorrect · 7 neutral
Avg return / call
-4.39%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-57.0%
Equal stake on all 13 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
-3.08%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (18) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 38% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 0.0% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −60.8% | 28 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -3.08% | 17 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
18 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Ultimately, Bitcoin Daily Closed above the October Downtrend (black) But price has immediately struggled to press beyond ~$83400 (red) More, Bitcoin also Weekly Closed below the ~$82500 which technically positions price for a bearish retest of said level into new resistance If Bitcoin fails to reclaim ~$82500 on lower timeframes like the Daily then the October Downtrend break would be rendered as inconsequential due to Bitcoin's latest positioning on the Weekly $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 80.0% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.43 | 7 | 25% |
30 days · stated
“#BTC The way to think about this is as follows: Bitcoin is currently down -9% If ~$80k is turned into new resistance then there's a good chance of lower prices However -30% pullbacks tend to occur only later in the Bitcoin Cycle (Post-Halving) so such a retrace at this stage in what is most likely an early-stage Bull Run is low probability Which leaves the "more than -10% to less than -25%" retrace mark viable candidates for a local bottom In saying that, historical Pre-Halving retraces in the prior cycle ended around the -22% mark This narrows it down even more to where a local bottom could take place in the vicinity of a "more than -10% to less than -22%" retrace And so provided that Bitcoin is an early-stage Bull Market (and there's a very good chance this is already the case) then anything from -11% to -22% is technically bargain territory And seeing as Bitcoin is down -9% already, that means Bitcoin is pretty much entering the bargain region already The question comes down to how much of a bargain does one want access to and how much risk is one willing to take in waiting for lower prices that may or may not come Dollar cost averaging for the rest of 2026 probably solves for that $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Ever since rejecting from ~$83400 and confirming it as resistance... Bitcoin has been dwindling, consistently rejecting from the Lower High (red) That said, price is still holding the orange region as support For Bitcoin to breakdown from here, price would need to continue rejecting from the Lower Highs and Daily Close below the orange region to set up for a bearish retest of said area $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is now not very far away from retesting the 50-week (purple) and 21-week (green) EMAs Deviating below them on a volatile retest to find a pullback bottom has historically happened in early-stage Bull Markets These deviations however would occur after a bullish crossovers of these two EMAs, whereas Bitcoin is still pre-crossover A confirmed crossover strengthens the EMAs as support However because the EMAs are still apart, that could potentially mean a deeper deviation below them to find a pullback bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "But historically, this retest has been a messy one so pronounced volatility on this retest needs to at the very least be considered" Bitcoin is indeed performing a volatile retest relative to $82500 There's scope for this retest to be even messier if Bitcoin Weekly Closes below ~$82500 $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is slipping below ~$82500 now but will need a Weekly Close below it to confirm a loss of this key level as support Bitcoin is down -8% from the local top at ~$87k $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/cTcd7TQQaD https://t.co/vPQHfxcXLM”
“#BTC Bitcoin hasn't yet confirmed where it will build out its next Market Structure In the ReAccumulation Range (green-red) or the Macro Accumulation Range ($60k-$80k) If $82.5k can't force price into additional upside and keeps displaying weakness... Price would transition back into the Macro Accumulation Range for that Right Shoulder to likely develop $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has performed a bearish retest of ~$83400, turning it into new resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/Op0IubJqgu https://t.co/IE02mAMfTc”
“#BTC Bitcoin indeed rebounded right into ~$83400 (red) Price is treating this level as resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/AOKsUxcwRp https://t.co/IE02mAMfTc”
“#BTC Bitcoin has indeed revisited ~$83400 (red) Rejected from there for now Moment of truth $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/D4fKj8bPYl https://t.co/IE02mAMNIK”
“#BTC The Bitcoin EMA Crossover of the purple 50-week and green 21-week EMAs is getting closer and is likely due to occur over the next several weeks But even after such Crossovers, Bitcoin would still have the capacity for a early-stage Bull Market pullback In fact, in 2023 Bitcoin deviated below the two EMAs to form a pullback bottom (blue box) after the Crossover occurred (orange circle) If history repeats, Bitcoin could deviate below the two EMAs once again in search of a pullback bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "~$82500 needs to hold continually as support for bullish bias and to avoid mean reversion into the $60k-$80k Range" $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/QyFDJe3y0P https://t.co/oLPus1leNS”
“#BTC The crucial retest appears to be successful thus far (black circle) Bitcoin will need to continue to demonstrate stability above the lows $80,000s if it wants to remain positioned for additional trend continuation to the upside over time Loss of that stability would see price revert into the $60k-$80k Macro Range for additional consolidation there $BTC #Bitcoin”
“@Joseph_Beir This one? https://t.co/gNMVgY55JN”
“In #BTC Bull Markets you’re always one -10% to -30% pullback away from a great entry And if such a retrace were to occur in the near future then there’s a good chance Bitcoin would revisit prices not very, very far away from the $58k lows You don’t have to buy the absolute lows to do well in a Bitcoin Bull Market After all, the very few who manage to buy the absolute lows may also mistime the Bull Market top and sell too early The aim is to capture the majority of the trend and the key going forward will be to buy on any deeper future pullbacks $BTC #Bitcoin”